Based on pure instinct... here I go...
Seat Projections:
Liberal - 53 (46%)
NDP - 25 (38%)
Green - 1 (10%)
DRBC - 0 (3%)
Other - 0 (3%)
Predictions:
- Campbell will keep his seat in Vancouver Point Grey.
- James will win in Victoria Beacon Hill.
- The NDP will win nearly every seat on Vancouver Island (Malahat-Juan de Fuca will be a close NDP win against DRBC Leader Tom Morino) but be the minority in the Interior and the Lower Mainland.
- Green Leader Adrienne Carr will be elected in Powell River-Sunshine Coast by a very slim margin.
- The largest amount of popular vote will go to the Liberals.
- The STV Vote will be defeated.
- Expect a low voter turnout.
So... tonight, we will all see how acurately attuned I am to the BC political climate...
Tuesday, May 17, 2005
my bc election predictions...
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5 comments:
yeah. It looks like it's been a pretty boring campaign. No huge fireworks... oh well.
I do hope that Carr wins her seat. That would be sweet.
well Peter,
I looks like the ND's are ahead in Columbia River-Revelstoke.
My predictions are a little off also. Adrienne Carr was defeated. My popular vote is kinda close though. hmm. should be interesting what the seats look like in the morning.
Check out Cariboo North and Cariboo South!
Holy Cow! Talk about a f'n close race!!!! 1 vote margin in Cariboo South!?!?! Wow!
Is that your turf, hol?
Well, it turns out that only two of my points were wrong.
Carr was defeated (19% and 3rd place in her riding) and Morino got blown out of the water in his riding (getting like 4% of the vote or something crazy like that).
I was close on the popular vote (dead on with the Liberal vote, -2 with the ND vote, and -1 with the Green vote, and +3 with the DRBC vote :P).
I knew that the Green PV would drop from 2001 and I lowballed the ND's because I didn't think they would break 40% and get 33 seats!!! I actually thought it would be between 25 and 30 seats, but 33 is fine by me. :)
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