Check out Daveberta's thoughts on the First-Ballot of the Alberta PC leadership race...
For interests sake, here is a who's-who list of who in the Alberta PC caucus is supporting who in the Alberta PC leadership race.
I think I have all of the declared supporters listed, but feel free to email me at daveberta@linuxmail.org if you've heard something I haven't. I'll try to keep the list as updated as possible.4
2006 Alberta PC caucus/leadership race support:
Total declared support:
Jim Dinning - 36 MLA's
Ed Stelmach - 9 MLA's
Lyle Oberg - 3 MLA's
Mark Norris - 2 MLA's
Ted Morton - 1 MLA (Alberta Alliance MLA Paul Hinman);
Victor Doerksen - No Declared MLA Support
Dave Hancock - No Declared MLA Support
Gary McPherson - No Declared MLA Support
Undeclared - 8 MLA's
MLA List
Jim Dinning Supporters -34 MLA's
Cindy Ady, Calgary-Shaw (Jim Dinning)
Moe Amery, Calgary-East (Jim Dinning)
Neil Brown, Calgary-Nose Hill (Jim Dinning)
Wayne Cao, Calgary-Fort (Jim Dinning)
Hon. Mike Cardinal, Athabasca-Redwater (Jim Dinning)
Hon. Harvey Cenaiko, Calgary-Buffalo (Jim Dinning)
Hon. David Coutts, Livingstone-Macleod (Jim Dinning)
Alana DeLong, Calgary Bow (Jim Dinning)
Hon. Heather Forsyth, Calgary-Fish Creek (Jim Dinning)
Hon. Yvonne Fritz, Calgary-Cross (Jim Dinning)
Hon. Gordon Graydon, Grande Prairie-Wapiti (Jim Dinning)
Doug Griffiths, Battle River-Wainwright (Jim Dinning)
Hon. Denis Herard, Calgary-Egmont (Jim Dinning)
Mary Anne Jablonski, Red Deer-North (Jim Dinning)
Art Johnston, Calgary-Hays (Jim Dinning)
Ronald Liepert, Calgary-West (Jim Dinning)
Rob Lougheed, Strathcona (Jim Dinning)
Thomas Lukaszuk, Edmonton-Castle Downs (Jim Dinning)
Ty Lund, Rocky Mountain House (Jim Dinning)
Richard Magnus, Calgary-North Hill (Jim Dinning)
Hon. Gary Mar, Calgary-Mackay (Jim Dinning)
Richard Marz, Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills (Jim Dinning)
Hon. Barry McFarland, Little Bow (Jim Dinning)
Hon. Greg Melchin, Calgary-North West (Jim Dinning)
Len Mitzel, Cypress-Medicine Hat (Jim Dinning)
Frank Oberle, Peace River (Jim Dinning)
Ray Prins, Lacombe-Ponoka (Jim Dinning)
Hon. Rob Renner, Medicine Hat (Jim Dinning)
Dave Rodney, Calgary-Lougheed (Jim Dinning)
George Rogers, Leduc-Beaumont-Devon (Jim Dinning)
Shiraz Shariff, Calgary-McCall (Jim Dinning)
Hon. Ron Stevens, Calgary-Glenmore (Jim Dinning)
Janis Tarchuk, Banff-Cochrane (Jim Dinning)
Hon. George VanderBurg, Whitecourt-Ste. Anne (Jim Dinning)
Len Webber, Calgary-Foothills (Jim Dinning)
Hon. Gene Zwozdesky, Edmonton-Mill Creek (Jim Dinning)
Ed Stelmach Supporters - 9 MLA's
Ray Danyluk, Lac La Biche-St. Paul (Ed Stelmach)
Hon. Iris Evans, Sherwood Park (Ed Stelmach)
Mel Knight, Grande Prairie-Smoky (Ed Stelmach)
Fred Lindsay, Stony Plain (Ed Stelmach)
Hector Goudreau, Dunvegan-Central Peace (Ed Stlemach)
George Groeneveld, Highwood (Ed Stelmach)
Hon. Luke Ouellette, Innisfail-Sylvan Lake (Ed Stelmach)
Lloyd Snelgrove, Vermilion-Lloydminster (Ed Stelmach)
Ivan Strang, West Yellowhead (Ed Stelmach)
Lyle Oberg Supporters - 3 MLA's
Hon. Guy Boutilier, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo (Lyle Oberg)
Hon. Pearl Calahasen, Lesser Slave Lake (Lyle Oberg)
Hung Pham, Calgary Montrose (Lyle Oberg)
Mark Norris Supporters - 2 MLA's
Carol Haley, Airdrie-Chestermere (Mark Norris)
Hon. Doug Horner, Spruce Grove-Sturgeon-St. Albert (Mark Norris)
Ted Morton Supporters - 1 MLA
Paul Hinman, Cardston-Taber-Warner - Alberta Alliance Leader
Undeclared - 9 MLA's
Tony Abbott, Drayton Valley-Calmar (Rumoured Ted Morton supporter)
Hon. Denis Ducharme, Bonnyville-Cold Lake
Hon. Clint Dunford, Lethbridge-West
LeRoy Johnson, Wetaskiwin-Camrose
Hon. Ralph Klein, Calgary-Elbow
Hon. Ken Kowalski, Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock Hon. Ty Lund, Rocky Mountain House
Hon. Shirley McClellan, Drumheller-Stettler
Updates: September 29, 2006 to reflect 7 MLA endorsements for Ed Stelmach.
October 7, 2006 to reflect six new MLA endorsements for Jim Dinning.
October 11, 2006 to reflect leadership candidate Alana DeLong's endorsement of Jim Dinning and Paul Hinman's endorsement of Ted Morton.
October 28, 2006 to reflect MLA Mel Knight's endorsement of Ed Stelmach.
November 3, 2006 to reflect MLA Rob Lougheed's endorsement of Jim Dinning.
November 8, 2006 to reflect MLA Ivan Strang's endorsement of Ed Stelmach, and Pearl Calahasen and Guy Boutillier's endorsement of Lyle Oberg.
Friday, June 16, 2006
keeping track of the alberta tory leadership race.
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21 comments:
wow, Jim Dinning. Mr. Establishment. I bet he even drives a BMW... say good bye to Ralph's legacy of down to earth Premier's...
Can you say "coronation?" This leadership race is OVER.
It's interesting to see that the other candidates haven't been able to attrach much support in caucus so far. DAve, what do you think are the chances that Hancock will drop out?
A real race would have been healthy...
It's Turner in '84 all over again, which was bad for everyone, especially John Turner. Took him 2 years in opposition and a good hard look at a soup line to finally find his feet.
I think you're being generous by counting a leadership candidate in the number of MLAs who support that leadership candidate.
Dinning has dozens, Norris has 2, and nobody else has any. The declared outnumber the undeclared at this point, so it's a statistical likelihood that the rest will split up similarly.
But how much does it matter? How much control do the MLAs have over the Tory leadership process? What's the machinery?
I thought Ed Stelmach and Dave Hancock would have more followers! Some of the MLAs backing Mr. Dinning were not even in the Legislature when he last was!!
Rumor: I've heard through many *channels* that Gene Zwozdesky is likely to be the next Speaker, if everything goes as planned and Mr. Dinning is crowned king. I don't know if that's old news on this site or not...
If one party has a majority government, it's almost as assured as any promised cabinent portfolio. The leader will tell the caucus who to support for Speaker and it will be voted accordingly. There's not a lot of Tory MLA's looking to pull a "Lyle" these days... just look at how they're almost all lining up behind the heir-apparent.
Wouldn't it be great if there were a minority government in Alberta?
Looking at the list, the most important divisions seems to be that most of the remaining undeclared or undecided MLAs are rural or at least non-urban (I have not included Edmonton bedroom communities like Stony Plain in this count.)
Is this significant, probably.
If they line up behind one candidate, they could make it into a race. Good rural MLAs can pull votes.
They are somebodies in their communities.
Ask Ralph Klein. It's how he won.
Good point - I had been meaning to bring that up. It should be interesting who the large majority of the PC rural caucus throws their support behind.
Anyone looking for a down-to-earth premier should look at Stelmach. His platform is "honesty, integrity, and sincerity". If that doesn't sound like Ralph, I don't know what does. Alberta certainly needs continuation of those ideals going forward.
I would agree with csfr. Although total numbers do look good, rural MLA's have more influence with respect to getting their constituents to come out and vote for a leadership candidate. Although I live in an urban setting now, I grew up rural. Most people in rural areas know their MLA; heck, they even call them at home. In the major cities, by contrast, most people - those without a keen interest in politics, that is - don't know the name of their riding or even the name of their MLA (they might recall the name if they read it somewhere). I don't doubt that strong rural backing was one factor that helped Stelmach get the 500 PC member signatures required to be the first contender to actually enter the leadership race.
An interesting item I heard was that some of the MLAs who very early declared for Dinning are feeling heat from some of their constituents. There was a point made early on in this thread that many were not even in the house when Dinning was last an MLA. So for many to say that they support him for his policies (which were not out in the public domain, if they are now) was a bit of a stretch. I think Tom Olsen in the Calgary Herald used some sort of sheep analogy. It would be nice to see some additional dispersion of support - not everyone lining up behind the media's anointed "front-runner". It shows independent thinking, to my mind, on the part of the MLA, and helps them to avoid being labelled as one who is just gunning for a cabinet position. Correct me if I am wrong, but I remember Norris complaining this summer that the Agriculture Ministry was promised to four guys - and none of them named Doug Horner.
Lastly, I would think MLA support helps to get a candidate more press. The Calgary press has been just awful in their coverage of anyone but Dinning, Morton and Oberg. Norris gets the odd bit of text, and lately Stelmach has as well, but Hancock has been almost invisible, and the rest hardly mentioned at all. The Edmonton press has been a little more balanced, but not enough in my view. This should change for the better as policy comes out - I hope.
Add HUng Pham under Oberg's name. He's been a Lyle convert for many moons.
"Add HUng Pham under Oberg's name. He's been a Lyle convert for many moons."
Do you have a link for this?
any bets on how long until Victor Doerksen drops out and endorses Dinning?
Alana DeLong's departure from the race and endorsement of Dinning should be no suprise to anyone. Why else would DeLong have wanted to run but to try to solidify her position as a potential Jim Dinning cabinet minister or SPC chair.
I have my doubts whether this will work, but her best bets were to drop out now before the leadership selection weekend so that her support meant more than the 1.2% of support she may have garnered at the polls.
It's too bad that Delong as the only woman candidate wasn't even a credible candidate. The Tories have missed a golden oppurtunity by not attracting a strong woman candidate in the sea of middle-aged white men we now see before us.
It is interesting that Oberg has Hung Pham from NE Calgary supporting him.
Makes me wonder how active the Aftergoods are in the campaign.
Also, I wonder which country he would target to bring in foreign workers (Don't jump me, his policy is out now)?
My guess is Vietnam, he has an investment in a school there, made when he was Learning Minister led by the same Hung Pham. Any conflict?
And guess which country that David Aftergood makes all their money in? That would be the same Vietnam and Hung is in on that one too.
Oh and almost forgot, guess which lawyer who represents the Aftergoods is running the Oberg campaign? Ivan Bernardo.
Any questions? Well, ask Lyle.
For anyone who is interested I found a very good blog that has been following the leadership race.
It's called Alberta Decides 2006 and is a must read for anyone who wants to stay on top of things in the campaign.
http://www.albertadecides2006.blogspot.com/
These numbers DON'T show the endorsements of the Federal Conservative MPs, who have much greater election machines.
This is why, for example, Morton who has very little MLA support is thought to still be in the top 3 (although surely Dinning will win the thing) - Morton has over have of the AB federal MPs.
The reason I'm keeping track of the MLA support is not for membership sales predictions, but to keep track of how many of their peers in the legislative assembly are supporting which leadership candidate.
The MP's may be powerful supporters for Morton, but in no matter how real his federal scene agenda is, in reality he's not running to lead MP's. He's running to lead a provincial caucus.
Dave,
MLA Ivan Strang has endorsed Ed Stelmach.
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