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Sunday, November 26, 2006

dinning v. morton + kingmaker stelmach

Care 'o The One Party State...

First Ballot Results Thanks to the Invisible Hand, who is liveblogging the results from Calgary, here are the final totals:

Dinning 29,470
Morton 25,614
Stelmach 14,967
Oberg 11,638
Hancock 7595
Norris 6789
Doerksen 873
McPherson 744
Total: 97,690

Looks like I may have been a little off on my predictions. I'll be interesting to see the final verified totals tomorrow morning. I'll promise more analysis then.

Snarky comments, thoughtful observations, and rude remarks welcomed.

UPDATE: Larry Johnsrude has reported that Dave Hancock has endorsed Ed Stelmach in order to form a "Northern Alliance" (not to be confused with the other Northern Alliance). If this is true then I'm not totally shocked by Hancock's decision to support Ed Stelmach over Jim Dinning as Dinning's campaign has not exactly been the most gracious gang of frontrunners around the block.


Reform! said...

Hot damn!
Ted Morton is a winner!
I brought 25 out to vote for Ted this week and next week the goal is 50!

Anonymous said...

What does 36 MLA's support buy you?

30% of the vote apparently.

Hasty said...

Pretty suprising to see the Norris campaign's results.

Feynman and Coulter's Love Child said...

Yeah, I'm surprised that Stelmach superceeded Norris as well.

As for the Hancock endorsement, I had heard Hancock/Stelmach/Norris had a 3-way deal to endorse each other if the other 2 didn't make it onto the second ballot anyways, so this is not particularly big news.

The real questions are going to be what % of supporters each endorser can get to vote for the approved choice next week, and what % of people didn't vote Saturday due to either the weather or the knowledge that the first ballot was merely a formality anyways.

Gnomes said...

That's interesting about a three-way deal. I wonder who Oberg will endorse, if anyone. If Stelmach could get Oberg and Norris in addition to Hancock, and those three could collectively deliver about 2/3 of their actual support, he would be in a position to place second on the second ballot's first round, meaning he wins.

Those are huge ifs, but then, there are strong anybody-but- movements for both Dinning and Morton.

Ken said...

Don't assume Stelmach as kingmaker. He is the best person for real change and with 100K showing up in the coldest day of this winter (so far) it tells us change is in the air. The core PC party people want to restore the party to its memebers and the people who are pro tem Tories want the province to be respectful of its citizens needs and aspiratoins. That means ALL of the citizens not just the Calgary Mafia or the Alliance Mafia.

I see that Ed could very well be the winner in all of this.
People want REAL change and were prepred to surprise everyone and show up - twice the number of first ballots case this time than in 1992.

Neither Dinning or Morton deliver enough no candidate is perfect but I believe Ed is better for Alberta than the rest.

This week Albertans will have time for reflection and some sober second thoughtfulness. Expect a 50% larger turnout next Saturday and that means Ed is the guy.

Expect Oberg to support Ed. That is what Stelmach's people said late last night in Calgary. He has nothing going for him anywhere else and he deserves very little given the kind of campaign he ran.

Anonymous said...

I can't imagine Oberg endorsing anyone other than Ted - from an ideology perspective, and looking at where his support base is.

Norris is interesting - I would love to see Norris endorse Ted as well.

One of the big factors at play is that many, MANY peopel on different leadership camps have felt very bullied by Jim's people leading up to now (poking fingers in chests, threatening the end of political careers, etc...) - I think that may ply a factor.

Anyways, busy times ahead!

Glen said...

I don't think Oberg will support anybody. He wants back into government and wouldn't dare support anybody & risk being on the wrong side of the fence.

Glen said...

Well, looks like I was wrong. Edmonton Journal is reporting that Oberg is supporting Ed Stelmach.

While I prefer Dinning, anybody but Morton will do.