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Wednesday, November 08, 2006

slightly off the mark across the union.

I'm sure I was not alone last night as many politicos from across Canada watched the glory of democracy in action as the mid-term election results rolled in from across the Union to the South. On Monday, in prep for last night, I laid down some bold predictions for some of the major races in the U.S. Senate up for grabs. Let's see how my clairvoyance faired in the 2006 mid-terms...

(My predictions) v. reality. - according to CNN.com

House of Representatives
Democratic - (225) 229
Republican - (210) 196
10 seats undecided

Thoughts: I may not have been too off in the end, but I clearly underestimated/overestimated the Democrats/Republicans (or something). It should be interesting to see how America's first-ever woman Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi leads the new Democratic majority over the next 6 months before the Presidential bids spin in to high gear. Also, Democratic Representative-elect Keith Ellison is the first Muslim to serve in the United States Congress.

Senate
Republican - (50) 49
Democratic - (48) 49
Independent - 2 (caucusing with the Democrats)

Thoughts: Ironically, this was my original prediction weeks ago. But for some reason, I was convinced that George Allen would hold on in Virginia. Also, it should be interesting to see how the Democrats deal with the upcoming Senate confirmation hearings of Robert Gates' following Donald Rumsfeld's post-election resignation. Senate committee chairpersonships should be interesting to watch as well.

Here are some of the serious races in the Senate with (my predictions) v. reality...

Arizona

x-Jon Kyl (R) - (56%) 53%
Jim Pederson (D) - (42%) 44%

Connecticut
x-Joe Lieberman (I) - (51%) 50%
Ned Lamont (D) - (43%) 40%
Alan Schlesinger (R) - (6%) 10%

Maryland
Ben Cardin (D) - (57%) 54%
Michael Steele (R) - (43%) 44%

Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (D) - (62%) 58%
Mark Kennedy (R) - (38%) 38%

Missouri
Claire McCaskill (D) - (49%) 49%!!
x-Jim Talent (R) - (48%) 48%!!

Montana
Jon Tester (D) - (50%) 49%
x-Conrad Burns (R) - (48%) 48%

New Jersey
x-Robert Menendez (D) - (52%) 53%
Tom Kean Jr. (R) - (48%) 45%

Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D) - (53%) 56%
x-Mike DeWine (R) - (47%) 44%

Pennsylvania
Bob Casey (D) - (55%) 59%
x-Rick Santorum (R) - (45%) 41%

Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) - (53%) 53%!!
x-Lincoln Chafee (R) - (47%) 47%!!

Tennessee
Bob Corker (R) - (52%) 53%
Harold Ford Jr. (D) - (48%) 47%

Virginia
x-George Allen (R) - (51%) 49%
James Webb (D) - (49%) 50%

Washington
x-Maria Cantwell (D) - (57%) 58%
Mike McGavick (R) - (43%) 39%

So, overall I don't think I was completely off target (at least only by a couple of percentage points...). Thoughts?

2 comments:

Jim said...

Well, you called all the races right (percentage wise or not) except for Virginia--and I called them all right except for Missouri (I'm used to heartbreak from the Show Me state). If we just split the difference...

The House was a much weirder picture--several top tier Democratic challengers either flamed out or are going to lose in squeakers, yet Democrats managed to gain seats that they never thought would be possible unless the wave was REALLY large: NH-01, IA-02, PA-04 and KS-02 for starters. Most of the experts did NOT expect those to flip.

And if Joe Courtney's 170 vote lead holds in CT-02, Chris Shays in CT-04 will be the ONLY Republican House incumbent left standing in New England. The Northeast was brutal for Republicans this year--the final realignment between the rock-solid Republican South and the Democratic Northeast. This is the FIRST time in history (I believe) that a party has managed to win control of the House with only a minority of the Southern seats. In fact, Democrats only picked up one seat in the South so far: NC-11 with former NFLer and conservative Democrat Heath Shuler running. In NC-08, Larry Kissell (D) is within 500 votes, and apparently there are a few ballots left to be counted. The DCCC is sending lawyers down there now.

It was an amazing, crazy night.

Anonymous said...

Go dems!