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Tuesday, December 05, 2006

i love by-elections!

I heard a rumour today that Mark Norris has replaced Peter Elzinga as Executive Director of the Alberta PC party. I wonder if there any truth to this...

Also, what do people think will happen in Calgary Elbow if Ralph Klein's resigns as MLA? By-Election...

Here are the 1997, 2001, and 2004 results from Calgary Elbow:

2004 (margin 2,020 votes)
x-Ralph Klein, PC - 6,958 (51.5%)
Stephen Brown, Liberal - 4,938 (36.5%)
Allison Roth, Greens - 668 (4.9%)
Diana-Lynn Brooks, Alliance - 488 (3.6%)
Becky Kelley, NDP - 345 (2.6%)
Trevor Grover, SC - 69 (0.5%)
Lloyd Blimke, Ind 51 (0.4%)

2001 (margin 5,680 votes)
x-Ralph Klein, PC - 10,213 (66.8%)
Harold Swanson, Liberal - 4,533 (29.7%)
Mathew Zachariah, NDP - 369 (2.4%)
Monier Rahall, Ind - 166 (1.1%)

1997 (margin 3,042 votes)
x-Ralph Klein, PC - 8,237 (57.90%)
Harold Swanson, Liberal - 5,195 (36.50%)
Lera Shirley, SC - 421 (3.00%)
Shawn Christie, NDP - 307 (2.10%)
Frank Haika, NLP - 75 (0.50%)


Hatrock said...

I don't know who Stephen Brown is, but I'd say he's got a serious shot at winning. What a nice injection of reality to the PCs this would be.

Anonymous said...

I keep thinking that Mark Norris would be smart to run there. Sure it would mean relocating his family from Edmonton, but at least he wouldn't be likely to lose his seat again any time soon.

b. said...

Rumor has it that the Liberals have found a strong high profile candidate to run in Elbow. Considering how well the did there when running against a popular Premier, they should do very well with a non-incumbent candidate.

michael in calgary said...

The Liberals have a great chance to take Elbow from the Tories. It is a riding that has strong Liberal support and would have gone Liberal a long time ago if Klein hadn't been the MLA.

After 3 strong Calgary Liberal wins in 2004 (Dave Taylor in Currie, David Swann in Mountainview, and Harry Chase in Varsity) the Liberals have huge growth potential in Calgary. I've heard that Taft is very popular amoung some heavy hitters in Calgary's corporate community who are sick of the Tories and with northern farmer Stelmach as PC leader they won't be any happier.

Anonymous said...

I strongly disagree. The liberals in that riding were strongly motivated to come out and vote because Klein was in the riding.

(1) Stelmach will dominate in the rural ridings. No gain for the PCs.

(2) Stelmach cannot do worse in Edmonton than they did last election. Gain for the PCs.

(3) Stelmach may lose one or two seats in Calgary. Little to no loss.

Result: Another PC majority, albeit a slightly stronger one.

Jim said...

Or perhaps they weren't motivated because they knew that Klein's re-election was a done deal? It's hard to tell without the kind of turnout data that you have in U.S. electoral analysis. In any event, a high profile Liberal could make an urban riding like Elbow interesting. I wouldn't count it out just yet. Lord knows I was shocked to see a Liberal win Calgary-Varsity in 2004.

Anonymous said...

I think the Tories stand of chance of retaining the seat. SW Calgary is about as Conservative as they come. Remember this is the same part of town where Bronco ran as a federal Liberal and lost to that young buck of the right - Rob Anders.

As well, having a PC candidate who is not party leader will give him more time to devote to doorknocking, meet voters, etc.

2004 can be seen as an anomaly since the voters elected an MP in June, then Mayor, Alderman and School Board Trustees in October followed by MLA and Senate elections. Three trips to the polls in a year will fatigue most voters.

Anonymous said...

I've heard some rumour that Avalon Roberts will be trying for the nomination there.

Anonymous said...

Watch out for the independents