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Sunday, December 02, 2007

sunday: new poll

A new Leger Marketing poll has Ed Stelmach's Tories at 42% (up from 33% in the previous survey), Kevin Taft's Alberta Liberals at 21% (up from 14%), Brian Mason's New Democrats dropping to 6% (from 8%), and the Alberta Alliance at 5%.

Both the Tories and Alberta Liberals have increased support and remain the two major players, but all parties remain below their traditional levels of support, indicating that there is still a lot of work to be done in the run up to the next election. I would be very interested to see how the regional breakdowns of support in the poll flushed out (ie: Edmonton v. Calgary v. rural).

With the up and down fluctuations we've seen in the polls over the past year, it wouldn't be surprising to see support levels shift a couple more times in the run up to and during the next election.

(h/t to Ken Chapman for the news link)

5 comments:

calgarygrit said...

You know, if Leger just factored in the undecided vote like every other pollster out there, there probably wouldn't be nearly as much fluctuation from poll to poll as it looks like.

Stephen Carter, Carter McRae Events said...

Dan

You think too much about polls. No disrespect to your future profession but they ain't worth crap!

S

Anonymous said...

Stephen, for a guy who does push polling during an election, you sound like a hypocrite.

Anonymous said...

Stephen Carter would know polls don't work - he thought Alnoor was going to crush Bronco.

What a noob.

Anonymous said...

Fran in Medicine Hat comments: I would expect that spending (committing) $6.2 Billion (+/-) to the Teachers' unfunded pension liability is the reason for the upward "blip" for Stelmach - for Taft and his Liberals it is their normal rise during legislative sittings, when the government front-benchers seem to fuss and fume and shine in their incompetence. We are a long way away from engaging the Alberta electorate into paying much attention to provincial politics. Meaningful movement will likely have to wait until after the Holidays and the writ's dropping. Polls without some rural/urban documentation offer very little info. It's like everything in politics - patience, hard work and staying focused - my money would go to the Liberals and NDP for those attributes, as Stelmach seems determined to literally "bite off more than he can chew" and spend, spend, spend. Conservative folks down here are not connecting with this farmer, and others have lost trust in the good old boys club of the Klein era - not really sure if this Premier knows what he is doing. I expect many to stay home and others to seriously start "shopping their vote." Challenge for the Opposition is to be at their door step when that happens.