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Wednesday, October 29, 2008

federal election results in alberta (1984-2008)

I'm in the midst of doing a bit of analysis into the Alberta results of the October 14, 2008 federal election, but in the meantime, here's a look at the popular vote results over the past 24 years (partially to show off my excel skills and partly to impress my statistician friend).

*Imaged edited since posted.

15 comments:

Ian said...

I think after a party becomes defunct you need to stop giving them data points (the same with before a party's existence). It makes the Greens look unpopular when they didn't exist.

daveberta said...

The Green Party of Canada was created in 1983.

daveberta said...

But good point. And edited...

Anonymous said...

Interesting to note that the trend from "reform" to "conservative" is pretty direct -- and does not seem to include a pick-up of the remaining "Progressive Conservatives" when that party was folded.

Kind of tells you what the new "conservative" party really is.. Refoooorm! with lipstick.

eh said...

Dan eats excel charts for breakfast, I think. Thanks for graphically representing the long term results, despite them throwing me into a bout of depression.

janfromthebruce said...

Your trend line shows why there was so many 2nd place finishes for the NDP this past federal election. Thanks for wanting to impress your friends. good work

Anonymous said...

The Greens don't seem to dent the combined Lib/NDP support... which seem to bounce back and forth... where is the Green vote coming from, one wonders?

Anonymous said...

Very impressive.

There is obviously a correlative relation ship between the NDP and Libs and between the PCs and the reform/alliance.

It's obvious, but neat to see it graphed - their respective rises and falls are almost mirror images of each other.

Libarbarian said...

To properly impress your statistician friend you need to change the spelling of "Conserative" in the labels (unless Harper has changed party names again!.
If you had the full 100% on the vote axis (x?) the Liberal vote would look admirably stable. Eventually the red tortoise will win the race. Cough.

daveberta said...

Libarbarian: No, Conserative is accurate.

Anonymous said...

Can you whip this puppy up using raw vote counts as opposed to popular votes, for another angle on the issue?

Calgary Grit said...

I AM impressed! It's be fun to look at the PC + Reform vote, and maybe break it into Edm/Cal/Rural.

rc said...

Am I reading that right? The ReformaTories are not as popular as the Mulroney PCs were back in 1984? Snicker.

Anonymous said...

I would have thought that was obvious considering the Mulroney PCs won 250 seats in the House... so yes, of course you're right. Snicker. What about superimposing the provincial Tories, Libs and NDP?

Recovering Politico said...

All snickering aside, the trends lines show the Liberal "brand" weakening consistently since the 80s. They were saved by the split right in the 90s, but are back to where they started. Hopefully, someone in the party will not be afraid to state that and start a serious discussion. As opposed to the "it was all Dion's fault" argument.

Calgary Grit comes close.