"...Dave Cournoyer isn't some obscure fat frat boy with a sticky-up haircut." - Neil Waugh (Edmonton Sun)
I would like to take this opportunity to remind Canadians of a silly little thing called math:
Seats in the House of CommonsThe political spin is thick as egg nog this holiday season, but the mathematical reality remains that both the Conservatives and the Liberal-NDP coalition are going to need to depend on the Bloc Quebecois if they wish to survive in this Parliament.
Conservative: 143
Liberal + NDP: 114
Bloc Quebecois: 49
Independent: 2
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14 comments:
143 Conservatives + 2 Independent conservatives + 10-15 Liberals = Government.
They exist. Find them.
Avoiding this change in government is still possible. Harper simply needs to offer a full apology for the failed economic update, name a new Finance Minister, and bring forward a plan for the economy.
It's even money that the Liberals will find some way to have enough members absent at any crucial votes so that they can vote in favour of non-confidence and still not bring down the government. Wait and see.
"Avoiding this change in government is still possible. Harper simply needs to offer a full apology for the failed economic update, name a new Finance Minister, and bring forward a plan for the economy."
Harper can do that, or admit that he has personally lost the confidence of the House of Commons and resign as Prime Minister. Mackenzie King did.
It would then be up to the Governor-General to either invite the Liberal-NDP coaltion to government, or ask Rob Nicholson (who is next in the Cabinet's order of precedence) to serve as Prime Minister with the Conservatives. That's how it would work, right?
I think we will be in for another election and no single party can be blamed for it. The Conservatives set the wheels in motion and the opposition parties are fueling the flames. Even the president of the Liberal party has stated that the current political and economic climate represents a vastly different situation than what the country faced in the last election, which means the GG would be justified in calling another one. It could be her own little $300 million stimulus package.
With such a strong minority it will be very hard for the Governor General to overturn the results of the last election...
SD,
If a new government happens, they won't have to "overturn the results of the last election." The new coalition is perfectly consistent with the results of the last election, because Canadians vote for a parliament, not a government.
Why don't people know this??? My god, what ARE they teaching in Canadian high schools these days???
I agree with Idealistic Pragmatist completely. The idea that we somehow "elected Steven Harper as Prime Minister" is flawed. His party one the largest block of seats and he was rightly entitled to therefore become Prime Minister for as long as he held the confidence of a majority of MPs. If he has lost said confidence, the leader of the next largest block of MPs shall be asked if he can instead govern.
This isn't anything new.
TJK,
Bill Casey has already said he's lost confidence in the government (see here). Did you have some other independents in mind?
Incidentally, why can't Red Tories bolt from the Cons and support the Lib/NDP coalition? Isn't that at least as plausible?
So the Liberals and NDP have joined as one?
Your math needs work.
Anonymous 5:32pm - The 'Liberal/NDP' point was meant to be the total number of MPs in the coalition.
I've changed it to 'Liberal + NDP' to make it more clear. Thanks!
If this were the US Congress, the Tories would effectively have a majority. That's because all they have to do is routinely pull a couple dozen Liberals to vote with them. It doesn't happen in Canada, because the party lines are so set in stone. That's what makes the idea of Tories in a Liberal-NDP led cabinet so absurd. If that were the system (like Obama keeping Gates on in Defence), there wouldn't be a Liberal-NDP government in the first place!
Actually if you corrected it it would show:
Liberal 77
NDP 37
It reflects the reality of who people voted for.
Conservatives by a 2 to 1 margin against the Liberals;
Conservative by almost a 3 to 1 margin against the ND.
And because we can't vote for the BQ, they don't count as a choice.
So to say that Canadians wanted any of these parties really is deceiving.
This is ridiculous -- the Conservatives and Liberals are (or should be, who knows how far left Dion has/is planning on taking them) closer in ideology than the Libs and the NDP, fiscally. You saw that with the Throne Speech last week (feels like ages ago, eh?), when Dion and the Liberals voted with the government at the behest of the NDP.
Actually if you corrected it it would show:
Liberal 77
NDP 37
It reflects the reality of who people voted for.
No, it reflects the number of seats in parliament. This reflects who people voted for:
Party: Popular Vote
Bloc: 10.0%
Conservative: 37.6%
Green: 6.8%
Independent: 0.7%
Liberal: 26.2%
NDP: 18.2%
Others: 0.5%
Note that Liberal+NDP is 44.4%, still no majority but way more than the Conservatives by themselves.
--Bob.
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