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Monday, January 05, 2009

edmonton-strathcona watch.

With NDP MP Linda Duncan having been the only non-Conservative MP elected in Alberta in the October 2008 election, I expect the Conservatives will pay a lot of attention to Edmonton-Strathcona in 2009.

It may be early, but the rumour mill has already begun generating names of potential Conservative candidates pondering a run in Alberta's only island of orange. One of the more interesting names I've heard mentioned has been Senator-in-waiting Betty Unger.

In 2000, Unger was narrowly defeated by former Liberal MP Anne McLellan when she ran under the Canadian Alliance banner in Edmonton-West. Running a woman candidate with campaign experience in a competitive riding would probably be a good move for the Conservatives as they bid to regain their political monopoly in this province. With Alberta's next scheduled Senate vacancy until 2011 (when Liberal Senator Tommy Banks turns 75), it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see Unger try to jump back into the political arena this early.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Has Rahim Jaffer indicated that he won't try to run again? It seems Rahim would be best poised to win the CPC nomination, hands down.

With his wife still in Parliament and both of them being quite youthful (by political standards) I think Mr. Jaffer must surely want another kick at the cat, especially since we'll have an election within a year or two at the most.

hatrock said...

I hear that Rahim will run again due to the volatility of parliament and simply having a team all ready to go for another election on short notice.

Betty Unger? Nice lady, but man is she desperate to win something, anything, and anywhere. She got trounced in the packed 8-candidate Edmonton-Spruce Grove nomination that saw Rona Ambrose win.

So I get a feeling that there may be some candidates who come forward "if" a proper nomination is held. But why do I also get the feeling that there may be a repeat of what happened in the Edmonton-Sherwood Park nomination, with some "bending" and date "changes"?

tjk said...

Duncan's getting whacked whoever wins the Conservative nomination.

Coalition + Conservative focus = Duncan toast.

Art said...

Dream on TJ.

Gustav said...

Um, TJ, you need to get some air out of your parents basement. I bet there were many, many people in that riding, such as myself, who held their nose and voted for Duncan, mostly to vote against the Tories.

I can't remember who who the Tory was that Notely beat, but I think the Eye of Layton is pretty comfortably Orange right now.

But it was good of you to admit that Jaffer wasn't very focused on his riding and instead the bars in Ottawa.

A said...

She didn't beat him by nearly as much as she should have. Being in the Orange County of Edmonton and TJ *cough* I mean the anonymous Tory you can't seem to remember the name of being a young buck with no campaign budget to speak of.

Back on topic - it would be nice if what Duncan does in office gets to have some bearing on whether or not she's re-elected (and if what Rahim didn't do in office - namely, anything, really - had some bearing on whether or not his party endorses his intentions, whatever they are).
Of course, I live in a remarkable fantasy land where what you stand for matters in politics and where unicorns get elected as Senators.

Art said...

A said: She didn't beat him by nearly as much as she should have.

How much should she have won by?

Notley beat TJ Keil by almost 3,000 votes (49% to 26%) - which is a pretty fair margin.

For comparison sake, Raj Pannu won three elections, two of them (1997 and 2000) were won by smaller margins than Notley's first effort.

tjk said...

A: I'm interested in these senate unicorns of which you speak. Do they also fly in the land of principle and opportunity you seek? I should hope so. I should hope we find that place as well.

Art: I'll take what I managed considering no time to prepare, no budget and half the NDP's provincial resources being directed with a candidate who'd been campaigning for 2 years.

Also, its no shame at all to be behind John Logan in terms of margin.

And I don't need to dream WRT Duncan, the See Magazine hex will shine through just fine I'm sure :)

That and the coalition, not answering phone calls, a motivated Conservative effort...ya know, crazy stuff like that.

daveberta said...

"Of course, I live in a remarkable fantasy land where what you stand for matters in politics and where unicorns get elected as Senators."

A, I miss you.

Denny said...

Actually TJK, half the NDP's resources were not directed to Notley's campaign.
If you're speaking in terms of money, the money used in Strathcona was all raised by the Edmonton-Strathcona constituency association and Notley's campaign. The campaign did not ask for, or receive any money from the central party.

You might be able to make an attempt at that argument in terms of personnel resources. She certainly had more volunteers than any other ND campaign, but other ND campaigns still had a number of volunteers and any staff paid for by the party worked on the central campaign.

Art said...

TJ

I'm not critizing your results. But A implied Notley should have won by more. I'm simply asking, how much should she have won by?

But since you brought it up, are we supposed to be sympathetic because you waited too long to get in the game, or didn't raise enough money? Is that supposed to be the fault of anyone reading this blog?

tjk said...

Wasn't trying to criticize you either Art, and no I don't expect sympathy, just merely commenting.

The situation isn't quite as you describe it having gone; which would show you might not have gotten why A said Notley should have won by more.

I didn't have the same time and couldn't raise money because I wasn't the candidate until election time due to a late change of heart from the previous candidate in Edmonton Strathcona.

I also don't think you understand the popularity John Logan had and the efforts he put in. That's okay but I was trying to explain those other results you're citing.

Just wanted to provide some info is all.

Anonymous said...

I've heard Wendy Andrews may run.

A said...

Art: TJ should have been utterly crushed, not just beaten by a "fair margin," Raj Pannu's showings (against better organized, better funded candidates of either the Conservative or Liberal persuasion/a fuller slate of candidates in general) notwitsthanding. As for 'why,' Mr. Kiel has kindly outlined the case already.

TJ: Indeed. I'm currently on safari searching for it. Stay tuned for updates on my quest and a memoir on the migratory patterns of senate unicorns in the mythical land of principle and opportunity.

Daveberta: Ditto. Lucky for us both there's blogs to bridge the distance/waste the time.

Anonymous said...

TJ Is a PC and if he can't win as a candidate in Alberta then he is not worth the menthane from a cow fart