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Thursday, August 25, 2005

liberals to win majority.

We thought this was a little funny.

As expected, Mr. Cherniak has the official Ottawa politburo spin on his blog.


daveberta said...

that was my point.

Nastyboy said...

With the federal Liberals ability to scare eastern Canada, and the Tories inability to run a campain without self-destructing, anything is possible.

RP. said...

Speaking as someone who doesn't want to see a Liberal majority, I have to admit I agree with a lot of what the story says. It does seem to be shaping up that way. Especially when you consider that in BC the Cons have slipped to 3rd.

Simon Pole said...

Canadian politics as quagmire --

that's hilarious.

Jason Cherniak said...

Oh come on. What I wrote is the proper answer. All we get from the PMO is the headline "Martin says Quebec will not be ignored".

daveberta said...

simon wrote: " Canadian politics as quagmire --

that's hilarious."


jason wrote: "Oh come on. What I wrote is the proper answer. All we get from the PMO is the headline "Martin says Quebec will not be ignored"."

Quebec was being ignored? What about Adscam?

Gauntlet said...

There is a disconnect between what we want our politicians to do, and what we force them to do, isn't there?

We want them to think of the good of the country. We force them to think of the good of the party first, in order to get a chance to think of the good of the country.

This is thinking of the party. I agree with JC, it's not rocket science. Figure out which seats you're likely to win again without much effort (s). Figure out the difference between that number and the number of seats required for a majority, plus perhaps a small cushion for safety (n=155+m-s). Then, choose the n seats in which your polling numbers are the best, and win them.

I have to admit, the fact that somehow some prairie seats got into 'n' is disconcerting.

daveberta said...

I agree. It's obviously a big part of the Liberal strategists job to strategize to win seats. I just don't think it's realistic that the Federal Liberals are going to win a majority, nor do I believe they deserve to hold a majority of seats in the House of Commons.

Candace said...

I don't know how realistic the Libs getting "more" seats in the prairies is.

daveberta said...

Hi Candace,

Though I agree, I think it depends what the definition of "prairies" is.

I think it is entirely realistic that the fed Liberals could win one more (or influence races in some) urban western ridings.

A number of ridings in Manitoba, Sask, and Alberta (okay, maybe 2-3 in Alberta...) could go Lib/Con or ND/Con.

Of course in Alberta, Edmonton remains the bastion of electoral competition with the perenial battlegrounds of Edmonton Centre, East, Beaumont-MW, and Strathcona all being solid ground for no one. At least in Alberta, these are the seats that if any would change hands to parties other than the Tories.

Michael Fox said...

It's VERY telling that Herle didn't discuss any polling numbers in that meeting. You can guarantee that if the polling numbers had supported his speech, they would have been included.

You can always trust Cherniak to echo the party line (HA!)..

I really can't see the Liberals reaching majority status without major gains in Quebec. The Conservatives have nowhere to go but up in Ontario, and the seats in Saskatchewan/Manitoba/BC Interior would go NDP before they would go Liberal.

As for Alberta - this recent talk about taking their surplus and giving it to other provinces should lock up a Conservative sweep there, if it wasn't a given already.

If an election were held in the near future, my guess is the Conservatives and Liberals would both lose a few seats, and the NDP and BQ would gain a few seats, leaving us with the status quo, and resignations from both Paul Martin and Stephen Harper.