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Monday, September 11, 2006

and the race continues, and may acutally be a race?

A new poll released last week by Ipsos places Jim Dinning in the lead in the Alberta PC leadership race...

Jim Dinning (54%) The Frontrunner In Favourability Ratings – Lyle Oberg (48%) In Second Place With Dave Hancock (44%) Gaining Momentum

One-Quarter (26%) Of Albertans Think Dinning Would Do The Best Job As The Next Premier, But Oberg (21%) Hot On His Trail
It's no surprise that Dinning is in the lead, but I find it very surprising that Lyle Oberg is placing second. As well, I found Dave Hancock's third place finish and the suggestion that he is "gaining momentum" to also be interesting. I wonder if this polling actually reflects the candidate's membership sales...

The first leadership debate for this race will take place tomorrow night in St. Albert. This is the first official Alberta PC leadership debate, which will occur before Premier Ralph Klein tenders his resignation letter next Saturday...

The contenders in this race now include Jim Dinning, Dave Hancock, Lyle Oberg, Ed Stelmach, Mark Norris, Ted Morton, Victor Doerksen, Alana DeLong, and Greg McPherson.

I'll write more on the other contenders soon, but since the entry of social conservative Red Deer South MLA Victor Doerksen, the rumour mill has been spinning... there seem to be three main rumours surrounding Doerksen's intentions...

1) Doerksen is running a legitimate campaign to be leader of the Alberta PC's.
2) Doerksen is really supporting Jim Dinning, but is running in an attempt to split the social conservative vote with Ted Morton.
3) Doerksen is really supporting Ted Morton, but is running in an attempt to energize the social conservative vote so that Doerksen can drop out and endorse Morton before the selection process - making it an endorsement of another leadership candidate, rather than just an MLA.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on this???

13 comments:

WillBlog said...

I still think the polls are meaningless until they restrict their sample to those holding PC Alberta memberships. As has been frequently pointed out (even though the polling companies haven't grasped this yet), this isn't a general election - only paid up party members can vote. Ergo, how a non-member would vote is pointless.

daveberta said...

Agreed. And as I'm sure you'll be pleased to hear, this is why I think Ted Morton will do better in the leadership race than most people would predict. I think the type of Albertans he is signing up are a lot more dedicated to show up and represent their side of the wedge issues that are being used to shore up the social conservative vote in the Alberta PC leadership race.

Put plainly, I would predict that Morton's support is more dedicated than Dinning's (which seems to be a mile wide, but may only be an inch deep. Whereas Morton's support seems to be half a mile wide, but foot deep).

It also helps that Morton has taken strong policy positions, where Dinning still remains vague about where he wants to take Alberta as PC leader and Premier.

eugene plawiuk said...

Nyah nyah beat ya to posting this poll...see Place Your Wagers

Anonymous said...

Willblog and Dave, you are both right. I ran across a funny headline for an article using the polling info. "Obert" is neck and neck with Dinning. [Google news under Oberg and you will find it]. Now, if their (Angus Reid) apparent lack of attention to spelling is reflected in the polling process, then I am not too concerned with their purported indications of support (I support neither Dinning, Oberg, or Morton, as a first choice, by the way).

Jon said...

As a Liberal, I hope for Dinning to win...God help us if Morton wins.

Kyle G. Olsen said...

From a paid Dinning organizer: Doerksen is our man in central Alberta, and protects the flank from Morton. If a so-con like Doerksen can go with Dinning, the followers shoudl be comfortable too.

Sam said...

If you're a Liberal you should be praying Morton takes it. The "red" tories will jump ship and put your Liberals ahead of the new radically socially conservative Tories. I'm also surprised Hancock has made such gains, if the poll is true, honestly I thought Morton had more of a chance than Hancock.

Jon said...

What makes you think that Albertians have an issue with Neo-cons? Look at how well the upstart Albera Alliance did...oi.

Anonymous said...

I'm really glad to see Hancock doing so well with the public - hopefully he can sell as many memberships!

eugene plawiuk said...

Oberg Morton and Doerkson split each others vote. What happened to Norris? The Edmonton Sun candidate. Funny that the man they hate; Hancock is in a frontrunner position. He is even more Liberal than Dinning.

Anonymous said...

The Alliance won one seat and got 9% of the vote. Their support is concentrated in 15 or so deep rural ridings. If Morton becomes PC leader, look for that support to go back to the Tories. This won't make much of a difference though as most sane Tory support will go to the Liberals.

Anonymous said...

Don't forget about the 200,000 or so voters who didn't bother to show up last time.

Anonymous said...

gary McPherson is the dark Horse with soon to be announced exciting policies and programs...he is not a part of the problem...he is the solution