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Friday, May 15, 2009

ron stevens departs. calgary-glenmore by-election imminent.

Alberta's Deputy Premier and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Ron Stevens resigned from Cabinet and the Legislature this afternoon.

First elected in 1997, Stevens replaced Dianne Mirosh as the MLA for Calgary-Glenmore. Stevens served in the cabinets of both Premiers Ralph Klein and Ed Stelmach. Since Stelmach became Premier in 2006, Stevens has served as the PCs designated heavy hitter in Calgary. Taxpayer's Federation Director Scott Hennig reports that Stevens is eligible to collect an estimated $451,000 in transition allowance.

Stevens' departure leaves a big hole to be filled in the PC cabinet as Calgary's senior Cabinet Minister position now falls to Health Minister Ron Liepert. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see Parliamentary Assistant and Calgary-Foothills MLA Len Webber invited to join Cabinet, it may take Stelmach some time to find a Calgary Lieutenant as well-connected to Calgary's corporate elites as Stevens. A former PC insider has informed me that Treasury Board President Lloyd Snelgrove will take over Stevens now former role as acting-Premier in Stelmach's absence.

A by-election has yet to be called in Calgary-Glenmore, but I’ve already heard rumours that Alderman Diane Colley-Urquhart may seek the PC nomination. This by-election could also serve as a springboard for Danielle Smith’s potential campaign for the Wild Rose Alliance leadership.

In 2008, five Liberal MLAs were elected in Calgary, including their new leader, David Swann. Will their March 2008 electoral gains help the Liberals attract a viable local candidate? In 1963, Bill Dickie was elected as the Liberal MLA for Calgary-Glenmore and was re-elected as a Liberal in 1967 before joining Peter Lougheed's PCs in 1969 (the Liberals would not elect another MLA in Calgary until Sheldon Chumir was elected in Calgary-Buffalo in 1986).

Calgary-Glenmore Past-Election Results

2008
Ron Stevens, PC 6,436 (51%)
Avalon Roberts, Lib 4,213 (33%)
Ryan Sadler, WRA 1,025 (8%)
Arden Bonokoski, G 550 (4%)
Holly Heffernan, NDP 477 (4%)
Total: 12,701

2004
Ron Stevens, PC 6,263 (50%)
Avalon Roberts, Lib 4,364 (35%)
Ernest McCutchon, AA 571 (5%)
Holly Heffernan, NDP 553 (4%)
Evan Sklarski, Grn 532 (4%)
Larry Heather, SC 127 (1%)
Total: 12,410

2001
Ron Stevens, PC 9,678 (68%)
Michael Broadhurst, Lib 3,708 (26%)
James Kohut, Grn 467 (3%)
Jennifer Stewart, NDP 441 (3%)
Total: 14,294

1997
Ron Stevens, PC 8,247 (58%)
Wayne Stewart, Lib 4,919 (35%)
Vernan Cook, SC 583 (4%)
Grace Johner, NDP 435 (3%)
Total: 14,184

SEE ALSO: Ken Chapman: Deputy Premier Stevens throws in the Towel and Calgary Grit: This Week in Alberta: Aloha Ron

27 comments:

Maude said...

You can also see Tiny Perfect Blog.I'm sure it was just an oversight on your part. :)

Anonymous said...

Any word on who's running for the Liberals? I've heard

Avalon Roberts (Past Candidate)
Corey Hogan (Dave Taylor's old Campaign Manager)
George Dadadmo (A former Ontario NDP MPP)

That would be an interesting nomination contest.

Anonymous said...

Charlie Fischer for the Liberals.

Barry Erskine for the Conservatives.

Anonymous said...

Charlie Fischer for the Conservatives.

A bag of patchouli incense for the Liberals.

Anonymous said...

The NDP are going to win in Calgary-Glenmore.

Star candidate going to take a run. It's going to be one big Socialist revolution in Glenmore.

Anonymous said...

"A bag of patchouli incense for the Liberals."

A Tory backbencher is going to run for the Liberals?

Word verification: fuggint

Anonymous said...

Stevens was a good MLA.

Low voter turnout in by-elections make predictions more difficult (...even though Calg-Glenmore will probably elect a PC MLA again...). 20% voter turnout could change things especially after a nasty PC candidate contest.

The Liberals and Wild Rose have a chance if turnout is low.

Laura Mac

Anonymous said...

The ALP Regional Chair and Communications Director met with George Dadamo today.

Kind of makes sense that David Swann would push for a former New Democrat from Bob Rae's socialist experiment in Ontario to represent the Liberals.

But is it a good idea electorally? Hell no.

Anonymous said...

Len Webber would be a great cabinet minister. I hope that Premier Stelmach also looks at Raj Sherman, Doug Griffiths, and Janice Sarich for cabinet.

Anonymous said...

So um, do you base the impending NDP win in Calgary-Glenmore on their numbers over the last 50 years? Because I don't see it.

Anonymous said...

By-election has to be held within 6 months - Wildrose Alliance leadership is in October. Don't be surprised if you see the Tories call the byelection before the Wildrose leadership to prevent the new leader from running.

As for new cabinet, my pick is Dave Rodney or Jonathan Denis.

Anonymous said...

Wow, a lot of you are smoking that "patchouli incense" - Dianne Colley-Urquhart should be a lock for the nomination for the Tories. Stevens wants her to get the nod, and she will be the beneficiary of his six-figure campaign trust. Charlie Fischer is a Liberal, and has no desire to play second-fiddle to a non-entity like Swann. NDP candidates needn't bother. Danielle Smith may run, but this by-election, as correctly pointed out above, will happen before the fishWRAP have their leadership ballot. Will she want to divide her attention? Who knows (and frankly, who cares).

Christine said...

Charlie Fischer would cruise to victory for any party in Glenmore. Money wouldn't be an issue for him either. He could replace Swann and as former VP for Nexen could take Ron Stevens' connections and put them to work for the ALP. He has cred.

Alberta Premier Charlie Fischer and Saskatchewan Premier Dwain Lingenfelter? Nexen rules the West.

What are Frances Wright and Madeline King doing these days? Craig Cheffins?

Diane CU is a household name in the riding. Hard core PC and longtime alderman. If she doesn't see a chance to become mayor she will settle for MLA. Is Leah Lawrence interested?

Anonymous said...

Charlie can run for either party, but he can only be a cabinet minister for one.

Ken Chapman said...

thx for the shoutout Dave. I just don't know why Ron Stevens resigned immediately...other than it give Premier Stelmach an easy excuse to do some much needed carpentry work on some of his wobbly cabinet legs. Nice to have a vacuum to file as the excuse to throw some guys under the bus.

Anonymous said...

I remember when people were saying Brian Henniger would cruise to victory

Anonymous said...

Nobody who knew Heninger said that.

Anonymous said...

If you look at the historical voting patterns in Glenmore vs. Elbow, Glenmore votes PC much more heavily. It's not as PC as Shaw, Lougheed, Egmont, or Fish Creek, but Elbow's always been a bit iffy.

I predict whoever the PC candidate is will win but with less of a spread than Stevens had in 2008.

Anonymous said...

Diane CU may have connections in the riding but her time on council won't serve her well with the electorate next time.

the PC party better recruit someone with some business smarts - someone from the patch? - who has credibility in Calgary. The party laments the fact there are only a half-dozen lawyers in caucus - but how many of them have an MBA?

in a recession I would prefer someone who can crunch the numbers to someone who voted to give me blue boxes

Justin said...

Ken: perhaps early resignation in case of upcoming change in federal government and impact on judicial appointments? Do you think that maybe explains it?

Anonymous said...

MBA ? Wonder why that is worth anything. Short sighted, quarter by quarter management. Just what we need more of.

Anonymous said...

Diane Colley Uraquart was/is a human rights commissioner. This is not going to bode well for the PC fortunes in Glenmore if she is the candidate.

Tristan said...

Calgary-Glenmore has grown, spreading employment through the neighbourhoods. Thousands of newcomers have arrived from provinces where people aren't taught from birth to hate Liberals.

Ron Stevens held off these pressures because he was, warts and all, a great MLA.

The next PC candidate might be a talented neophyte, but they won't be Ron Stevens.

JW said...

It is time for the Liberals to take actions that demonstrate their clear intention to form government. Approach the NDP and the Greens and suggest a single progressive candidate. Let Colley-Urquhart and Danielle Smith split the vote on the regressive side.

Anonymous said...

Progressive = left wing.

Anonymous said...

Harper govt faces a potential confidence vote in June on the budget stimulus reporting ... this might be a way for Harpo to stack the deck, just as he did with the Senate last fall...

Anonymous said...

Really?

What the hell does Harper have to do with a provincial by-election?

There is also a general election in Nova Scotia, two by-elections in Quebec. Should Harper stack the deck their two?