With the resignation of Deputy Premier and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Ron Stevens last week causing an imminent by-election in Calgary-Glenmore, Edmonton Journal Political Writer Trish Audette posed the following three questions which I have responded with my thoughts:
1. How will Premier Ed Stelmach shuffle cabinet?
Premier Ed Stelmach may avert a shuffle by taking personal responsibility of the Intergovernmental Affairs Minister portfolio (as former Premier Ralph Klein did from 1993 to 1994). If the Premier decides to shuffle the cabinet, this could mean a rearranging the current cabinet or promoting a backbencher. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the capable Calgary-Foothills MLA Len Webber appointed to a cabinet spot, as this would keep Calgary’s cabinet representation at the same level.
From a (by-)electoral standpoint, it would be smart for Stelmach to increase the number of Calgary cabinet ministers before the by-election in Calgary-Glenmore. If this is the route the Premier takes, Webber could be joined by newer Calgary region MLAs like Manmeet Bhullar, Kyle Fawcett, Dr. Neil Brown, Dave Rodney, Rob Anderson, or even Klein-era Cabinet Minister turned Stelmach-era backbencher Heather Forsyth.
While Stevens' resignation gives Stelmach the opportunity to shuffle the less talented elements out of the cabinet, the Premier has a track record of being incredibly loyal to his supporters, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a near status quo cabinet shuffle.
2. Will the resulting by-election in Calgary-Glenmore be an opening for the Wildrose Alliance?
The Wildrose Alliance (and its predecessor) increased its support in Calgary-Glenmore from 571 votes (5%) in 2004 to 1,025 (8%) in 2008. By-elections traditionally attract a lower voter turnout than General Elections, so a high profile candidate could potentially do well while taking advantage of the lower turnout. Rumoured Wildrose Alliance leadership candidate Danielle Smith could mount a strong challenge for the right-wing party in this by-election.
1. How will Premier Ed Stelmach shuffle cabinet?
Premier Ed Stelmach may avert a shuffle by taking personal responsibility of the Intergovernmental Affairs Minister portfolio (as former Premier Ralph Klein did from 1993 to 1994). If the Premier decides to shuffle the cabinet, this could mean a rearranging the current cabinet or promoting a backbencher. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the capable Calgary-Foothills MLA Len Webber appointed to a cabinet spot, as this would keep Calgary’s cabinet representation at the same level.
From a (by-)electoral standpoint, it would be smart for Stelmach to increase the number of Calgary cabinet ministers before the by-election in Calgary-Glenmore. If this is the route the Premier takes, Webber could be joined by newer Calgary region MLAs like Manmeet Bhullar, Kyle Fawcett, Dr. Neil Brown, Dave Rodney, Rob Anderson, or even Klein-era Cabinet Minister turned Stelmach-era backbencher Heather Forsyth.
While Stevens' resignation gives Stelmach the opportunity to shuffle the less talented elements out of the cabinet, the Premier has a track record of being incredibly loyal to his supporters, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a near status quo cabinet shuffle.
2. Will the resulting by-election in Calgary-Glenmore be an opening for the Wildrose Alliance?
The Wildrose Alliance (and its predecessor) increased its support in Calgary-Glenmore from 571 votes (5%) in 2004 to 1,025 (8%) in 2008. By-elections traditionally attract a lower voter turnout than General Elections, so a high profile candidate could potentially do well while taking advantage of the lower turnout. Rumoured Wildrose Alliance leadership candidate Danielle Smith could mount a strong challenge for the right-wing party in this by-election.
3. How hard are the Conservatives and Liberals going to fight for this riding?
PC MLAs have represented this riding since 1969 and the PC Party will fight hard to avoid the embarrassment of a Calgary-Elbow style defeat. As predicted, Alderman Diane Colley-Urquhart is the first candidate to publicly enter the PC nomination contest.
This is the first electoral test that Calgary-Mountain View MLA David Swann will face since becoming Leader of the Alberta Liberal Party in December 2008. Swann is the first Calgary-based Liberal leader since the 1970s, so this by-election will be an important indicator of his party's appeal in Alberta's largest city, and it will be an uphill battle. In 2008, Calgary-Glenmore Liberal candidate Avalon Roberts earned 33%, while Liberal MLA Craig Cheffins was narrowly defeated in neighbouring Calgary-Elbow. Former Ontario MPP George Dadamo is the first candidate to publicly express interest in the Liberal nomination.
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26 comments:
Good post. Will anyone else contest the PC nomination?
I suspect Ed will either take Stevens old portfolio on himself or elevate a Calgary backbencher to the post.
Any further shuffling will wait until after the current session is done. To move people in and out now, with so much legislation in progress, would be insane.
Although bouncing Lindsay Blackett out of C&CS might be a good way to scuttle Bill 44. But I doubt Ed wants the optics of firing his only black cabinet minister and blaming a bad bill on the man to boot.
Rob Renner and Lindsay Blackett should both be booted from their cabinet spots. There is a lot of talent in the PC caucus. Not a lot of talent in the PC cabinet.
Webber would be the 4th second generation politician in cabinet. Horner, Oberle, Morton fathers were politicians. (and Ady's father-in-law)
Don Braid wrote in his column today that Paul Hinman wants to run for the WRA.
Leah Lawrence was heard talking about the by-election at a meeting this week. Will she run?
What about Calgary Hays MLA Art Johnston? He is in his second term and likely deserves a look at a post.
Shane
I agree with Shane about Art Johnson.
I'd really like to see Jonathan Denis get promoted - he is my MLA and my personal experience with his office was great. I had a healthcare concern I contacted his office about and Jonathan called me back the next day.
I live in Chestermere. I read online that Rob Anderson had said he was responsible for lottery grants?? What's up with that?? Rookie mistake? Not cabinet material.
Art Johnston is useless, that hack opposed the Highway 22x twinning in his first term in office, until people made such an uproar about it at one of his townhall meetings.
Since then he has been a do nothing back benches, not opening his mouth or doing anything to represent Calgary-Hays.
Incidentally he hasn't had any town-hall meetings since.
As predicted, Premier Stelmach takes over Ron Stevens' responsibilities:
http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Stelmach+take+over+Stevens+duties/1613127/story.html
Calgaryrants: I never thought of Art Johnston. Looks like there will be no immediate cabinet shuffle, so he may have to wait.
I actually have to agree with Anonymous 2:54:00, I posted the post above about Art Johnston.
I have seen more of Jonathan Denis around, and heard more from him to then my own MLA.
Denis actually does his job.
Art Johnston would be a good pick - he's a former police officer and this government seems like it's cracking down on crime.
Diane Colley-Urquhart will be acclaimed as the Tory candidate in Glenmore.
Hinman will run for the Alliance.
Hinman wins in an upset in the early October vote and it gives the Alliance a "bump" going into its leadership contest this fall.
It looks like this race is shaping up. Urquhart for the PCs, Hinmann for the Alliance.
Could be a good right wing split.
Now if the Liberals just run a Liberal instead of an Ontario dipper from the Rae Days, they might stand a chance.
Just in case anyone is wondering Hinman has a home in the riding, so I don't wanna hear anyone complain about him parachuting in.
Interesting discussion. First, bouncing Blackett would be the worst way to scuttle Bill 44, even if that was the plan. While he hasn't defended the bill very well, it also wasn't his push. Booting him would be very bad internal politics as well as external/media relations.
And I can't resist commenting on the notion that Denis would be a good minister because he quickly called somebody back on a constituency-related issue. Other than the fact that Tory backbenchers have very little else to do, that has nothing to do with whether he would be a good minister. Maybe he would, but the evidence has to lie elsewhere.
I'm not sure how much real talent still rests on the PC backbenches. The bar must be set pretty low. Webber? Hasn't impressed me from what little I've seen. Mel Knight has no business still being in cabinet, other than the fact that he's a buddy of the Premier.
Has Danielle Smith said anything firm on her plans yet?
Any chance a Liberal MLA will look at the prospect of a cabinet shuffle to try to make the jump? Unlikely, but Pastoor is always on the verge of walking isn't she? Any others who could be tempted?
I'm not a big tory supporter, but two guys I like are Kyle Fawcett and Jonathan Denis. Both of them campaigned hard for their job and didn't get in just because they happen to wear blue.
I also don't think it's right to say that backbenchers have nothing else to do - look at the heavy committee work some of these people have.
Paul Himnan grew up in Haysboro.
Dave is missing a few people who would be good cabinet ministers as well. He didn't mention Teresa Woo-paw and Wayne Cao.
I've been impressed by Jonathan Denis as well. He seems well versed on the issues and full of energy. Rob Anderson also seems like a solid young member of caucus. I hope Ed promotes some of the "blue" backbenchers over more big government "progressives" like Dave Hancock and co.
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Strong Liberal and PC bases of support. Could be close if the Liberals choose a good candidate.
I read that Corey Hogan is thinking about running.
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Corey Hogan would probably put on a really good campaign if he ran, but is he enough of a name outside of the ALP?
Actually, as I'm writing this, maybe the ALP doesn't need a name. Maybe we just need to fly under the radar and have a strong ground game. Hogan might be good for that.
Yes Yes Yes!!! Fly under the radar!
ALP has never tried that before....inadvertantly, or ???vertantly???
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