does question period really matter?

You may be forgiven if you turned off your radio or closed your web browser when you heard or read about the curfuffle raised by two of Alberta's opposition parties over the amount of questions in Question Period, but if you had taken a second look, you would have seen something edging on the bizarre. This morning, Wildrose MLA Paul Hinman and NDP MLA Brian Mason held a joint media conference (and in an even more bizarre twist, Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman would later join them).

Although the three MLAs raised some legitimate questions about their situation, I believe that there is a larger and much more important question: Does Question Period really matter?

Anyone who has watched Question Period in Alberta's Legislative Assembly can easily observe that most Government MLAs use their allotted time to read positive pre-written questions to Ministers, who then respond with pre-written softball answers. From another angle, some Government MLAs have been known to act as a faux-opposition, asking questions crafted to dilute the questions asked by actual Opposition MLAs.

Across the aisle, Opposition MLAs use much of their time to launch loaded questions crafted to illicit embarrassing responses from Government Ministers. Question Period is the bread and butter of Opposition MLAs. It is where they get the chance to score political points fit for the 6pm news. Some MLAs, including Mr. Mason and Liberal MLA Dave Taylor, have become particularly effective at crafting made for television moments in Question Period.

During their news conference today, the NDP Opposition released a chart (see above) comparing the amount of time that Opposition MLAs get to ask questions in Assemblies across Canada. I was not aware that most Assemblies allot Opposition MLAs the entirety of Question Period. While this appears to make sense to me, I wonder if this difference makes Question Period any more relevant to the general public in other provinces? Would the debate in our Assembly be more relevant to ordinary Albertans if Opposition MLAs were able to ask 18 questions instead of 7? Is Question Period theatre without an audience?

In a better world, Question Period would matter, but the issue raised by the Opposition MLAs today points to the larger problems facing our traditional governing structures and the increasing disconnect between citizens and their democratic institutions.

photo post: wildrose alliance floor-crossers.

I attended the Wildrose Alliance media conference today at the Alberta Legislature. At the conference, leader Danielle Smith and MLAs Paul Hinman, Heather Forsyth, and Rob Anderson took some questions. Recall was their big issue. I am not the biggest fan of recall. While they could be more vigourous and competitive, I believe that this is the reason why we have elections every four to five years. Sometimes our elected officials are just plain bad at their jobs and sometimes they have to make really tough (and unpopular) decisions. It is easy to confuse the two. Recall focuses on the negative, rather than recognizing the positive role that our elected officials can play in our communities.

Also, If you are looking for a thoughtful read, Duncan Wojtaszek was written an excellent blog post on the topic of floor-crossing.

a wake up call for alberta's political establishment.

As the new leader of the Wildrose Alliance, I believe that Danielle Smith could be a game-changer in Alberta politics. Why should you care if you're not a conservative? The potential of an insurgence by an non-traditional opposition party should be a wake up call to the other two opposition parties in the Alberta Legislature: the Liberals and NDP.

(Photo of Paul Hinman by K-Ideas)

Hope for the Liberals and NDP?

I know many self-described centrist, centre-left, independent, and progressive-minded Albertans who are engaged in their communities, but see little value in joining and contributing to these two parties. Both the Liberals and NDP have had challenges in growing their ranks since peaking both electorally and in support in the 1980s (for the NDP) and 1990s (for the Liberals). After attending the most recent Liberal and NDP conventions, I am convinced that both parties are stuck in neutral and have become too comfortable in their default positions as Alberta's legislative opposition.

The recent by-election in Calgary-Glenmore was an important electoral test for the Liberals. With an experienced candidate and campaign team, a leader from Calgary, and their not so distant by-election victory Calgary-Elbow, the Liberals should have won in Calgary-Glenmore. Liberal support held steady on election day, but their opportunity was usurped by Paul Hinman, whose insurgent campaign saw Wildrose Alliance support quadruple since the 2008 election. The NDP candidate barely registered with 148 votes.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/thivierr/ / CC BY-SA 2.0

Following the 2008 provincial election, the Democratic Renewal Project has promoted the merger of the Liberals and NDP in an effort to defeat the governing Progressive Conservatives. While I don't believe that their proposal is viable or will lead to the solution they desire, I do think that they are on to something far more valuable than the current parties are offering Albertans: Out of the box thinking.

Where do the Greens go?

With the disappearance of the Alberta Greens, where will the 43,563 Albertans who marked an X beside a Green candidate put their votes in the next election? Many people incorrectly label the Alberta Greens as a left-wing fringe party, but much of their strongest support comes from traditionally conservative areas in central Alberta and Calgary. With no Greens on the ballot in the next election, the party that exerts itself as a non-traditional alternative to the PCs may benefit from much of their support.

What about the PCs?

It would be foolish to underestimate the role that the element of 'power' plays in attracting people to our province's natural governing party, the Progressive Conservatives. There are many reasons why citizens gravitate to political parties, but much like past carnations of the Liberal Party of Canada, a large factor is the desirability of being on the winning side.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/raffaella/ / CC BY 2.0

Elections in Alberta have become less about which is the best to slate of candidates to govern our province, and more about whether or not to renew the mandate of the natural governing party (which leads me to believe that it may be more effective to have a 'none of the above' choice on the ballot). Given near unlimited financial and organization resources, and facing minimal opposition, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand how the PCs have continually formed large majority governments. The rare existence of real electoral challengers has led to a festering institutional mediocrity that was demonstrated by Premier Ed Stelmach's pre-produced televised address.

After nearly 40 years in office, it is sometimes difficult for even an objective person to decipher what actual principles drive Alberta's natural governing party.

One of the great successes of the Alberta PCs have been their ability to maintain a big tent that includes a broad range of political ideologies and beliefs. Demonstrated over the past 40 years since Peter Lougheed welcomed Liberal MLA Bill Dickie into the PC caucus in 1969, even the current PC caucus includes Red Tories like Dave Hancock and Janice Sarich and social conservatives like Ted Morton and Rob Anderson. In between these two camps includes a large group of MLAs who have very likely chosen to wear the PC brand because it affords them a seat in the government benches.

A number of former PC MLAs and insiders have already joined the now Smith-led party, but will it translate into the kind of migration that led Preston Manning to crush the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada in 1993?

A new party?

I am convinced that it is only a matter of time before a new political movement of independent progressive minded Albertans emerges in our province.

Some political watchers have suggested that the rift on the right is an opportunity to draw progressive Albertans together under a new political banner. Far from a new idea, the prospect of a new political movement in Alberta is something that I am hearing increasingly from friends and associates who have been both politically active or never affiliated with a party or candidate. Their reasons are vast - Bill 44, cuts to health care, the environment, the record deficit - but the underlying message that I continue to hear is that the current government is out of touch, arrogant, and has squandered long-term opportunity for short-term gain.

In the last election, the PCs earned just 501,063 votes, or roughly 22% of the total eligible vote, which suggests that while their vote may be a mile wide it may only be an inch deep. Perhaps a 60% voter turnout is an unreasonable prediction for a modern liberal democracy, but if a new political movement could earn its support by increasing the popular vote by 20% without disturbing the earned votes from the last election, it would be able to challenge the PCs hold on government.

Will apathy win?

Of course, there is the very real possibility that new found support for the Wildrose Alliance will simply flame out, our electoral environment will remain uncompetitive, no new political movement will emerge, and Albertans will once again avoid the polls in droves.

As an Albertan, I have been told that manifest destiny is in my blood. I have little doubt that it is only a matter of time before we witness a big political shift in our province, but it will be up to Albertans to decide what this change will embody.

save the date: alberta politics in fall 2009.

October 14: Premier Ed Stelmach will deliver a televised address on CTV and AccessTV.

It is no surprise that Stelmach has a difficult time articulating himself when speaking in public, so these kind of productions will allow the Premier to present a message that is pre-produced, edited, and heavily scripted. The address is being pitched as a talk on the economy titled "The Way Forward."  This avenue presents Stelmach with the opportunity to make bold announcements, but I expect that while making numerous references to tough economic times, he will focus on the government's legislative agenda, economic agreements with neighbouring provinces, public service salary freezes, the recently implemented lobbyist registry, and the international role of Alberta's oilsands. It is also difficult to imagine Stelmach not mentioning that the Governments of Alberta and Canada have provided a $865 million subsidy for carbon capture projects to Shell, one of the largest and most profitable oil companies in the world.

Stelmach's 2007 televised address cost taxpayers $145,000, and with internet ads already popping up, I wouldn't be surprised if the total cost was closer $200,000 this year. The Premier has already been booked on the Rutherford Show for the next morning, so expect a full court press.

October 17: Riding high in the polls, the Wildrose Alliance will announce the results of their leadership contest after over 11,000 members vote to choose either Danielle Smith or Mark Dyrholm as their new leader. It was first rumoured that ten, and now four PC MLAs are interested in chatting with Smith if she wins the contest. Since outgoing leader Paul Hinman was by-elected in Calgary-Glenmore, a number of former Progressive Conservative MLAs, including former cabinet minister Ernie Isley have joined that party.

Also on October 17 is ChangeCamp Edmonton, an event that invites Edmontonians and Albertans to re-imagine government in the age of participation. As citizens, we have a responsibility and opportunity to start redesigning the way that we participate in government. Interested? Register online for free and join the conversation on October 17!

October 26-December 3: The Alberta Legislature will sit for the first time since the spring session ended with widespread opposition to Bill 44. I anticipate the first two weeks of the fall session to be about positioning Stelmach and his cabinet in a positive light before the PC leadership review. There continues to be talk of a cabinet shuffle, and with the retirement of Ron Stevens, Stelmach has been left without a designated Calgary Lieutenant. Justice Minister Alison Redford appears to be a natural fit for this position, but with rumoured leadership ambitions herself, she may be cautious to how tight she tethers her horse to Stelmach's buggy.

I foresee the building conflict over Bill 50, the mess inside the Department of Children Services, staff pay hikes and bonuses, cuts to health care and education, and continuing anger over Bill 44 to dominate the debate. With the Copenhagen Conference happening in December, expect Greenpeace hold another round of oilsands actions. Also, with new allies (including Enmax and Calgary Mayor Dave Bronconnier), landowners rights advocate Joe Anglin will be out in full force against Bill 50.

November 6-7: Premier Stelmach will face delegates at the PC leadership review in Red Deer. There is a lot of talk about how unhappy some PC supporters are with Stelmach and I don't doubt it. Former PC insider Hal Walker has publicly dismissed the Premier, Ralph Klein has mused that the Premier should step down if he receives less than 70% support, and Calgary-North Hill PC MLA Kyle Fawcett has publicly said that Stelmach has "done very little" to convince Calgarians that he's capable of leading the province. There is also a rumoured behind-the-scenes campaign to draft Calgary philanthropist and media personality Brett Wilson to save the dynasty that Peter Lougheed built.

The critics are vocal, but when push comes to shove I believe that the delegates to this convention will heed to the party brass and rally to protect the brand by giving Stelmach the support he needs to continue to occupy his current office.

November 6 and 26: The Alberta Liberals will be hosting their annual leader's dinner in Calgary and Edmonton, the first since David Swann became leader of the Official Opposition in December 2008. While some Liberals remain optimistic, that party has been tied down by debt since their disasterous election campaign in 2001. The ticket sales and fundraising numbers from these two dinners will be a key indicator of the financial support that the Liberals are receiving from their traditional larger donors.

snapshot wildrose: new poll places wildrose alliance in second place.

Polls can sometimes be strange and unpredictable snapshots, but this one is fascinating:

Alberta-wide
Progressive Conservative: 38.4%
Wildrose Alliance: 21.5%
Liberal: 20.5%
NDP: 10.7%
Other: 8.5%

Edmonton
Progressive Conservative: 34.5%
Liberal: 27.5%
NDP: 17%
Wildrose Alliance: 13.1%
Other: 11.1%

Calgary
Progressive Conservative: 38.2%
Wildrose Alliance: 27%
Liberal: 20.7%
NDP: 6.6%
Other: 7.7%

Initial thoughts: A public approval poll in June revealed that Albertans were disgruntled and cranky with their current political leadership and the results of this poll appears to confirm that.

This is obvious good news for the Wildrose Alliance because it means that many Albertans are aware enough of their existence to support them when questioned by a telephone surveyor (even if they're not sure what that party stands for). Their leadership vote is on October 17, and this poll paired with the recent by-election of Paul Hinman in Calgary-Glenmore strengthens the appearance that they are the only party with a semblance of momentum. The challenge will be to keep Albertans interested as they learn more about the right-wing party. In my opinion, Danielle Smith is the only candidate in their leadership contest with the potential to drive the momentum further.

The poll results show negative momentum for the traditional political parties in the two largest urban centers (I haven't seen the rural results). With Official Opposition leader David Swann hailing from Calgary, the Liberals should be concerned by their 13% drop in the city that was their only growth area in the last election (the Liberals increased their Calgary seat total to five MLAs with the election of Kent Hehr and Darshan Kang). While they remain in a province-wide distant third place, the poll results suggest that the NDP are have largely held on to their base of support in Edmonton and very moderately increased their already extremely small base of support in Calgary.

With a leadership review fast approaching, this poll is bad news for Premier Ed Stelmach. The PC party brass may attempt to spin the results as a case for party members to rally to protect their party's brand, but for the non-partisan majority, there is a large question of what the long-governing PCs even still stand for. With their lowest poll results in recent memory, it is clear that many Albertans are questioning the leadership and the confused direction that the the near 40-year ruling party is taking our province.

UPDATE: Here is a link to the PDF of the poll results.

will danielle smith ignite a wildrose fire in the pc caucus?

Alex Abboud and Trish Audette have already written about this, but an anonymous source reported in this week's subscription-only issue* of Alberta Scan has suggested that 10 Progressive Conservative MLAs could cross the floor to the Wildrose Alliance if potential game changer Danielle Smith is selected in the October 17 leadership vote.

How likely is this?

With 70 MLAs in the 83 seat legislature, the PCs have a broad-range of political diversity in their caucus ranging from liberals/Red Tories to hard-core angry social conservatives, with a large group of simple pro-government pragmatists filling the gap in between. While Ed Stelmach's tenure as Premier began three years ago with a number of funding increases and semi-progressive moves (like the creation of the now almost existent lobbyist registry), a number of recent events seem to suggest that the right-wingers in the PC caucus have been taking advantage of the current leadership vacuum to drive their own agenda.

A number of right-wing champions appear to have solidly integrated themselves into the PCs institutional machinery: Ted Morton is widely seen as a competent Minister of Sustainable Resource Development, and following Kyle Fawcett's very public apology to Premier Stelmach, it appears that the Stelmach loyalist's appointment to an important government committee was cancelled in favour of Bill 44 advocate Airdrie-Chestermere MLA Rob Anderson. Right-wing Calgary-Egmont MLA Jonathan Denis has just been appointed as Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Energy, and Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Broyce Jacobs is now the Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Agriculture.

Many of these MLAs are driving the agenda behind legislation like Bill 44 and pushing Stelmach's public shift to the right following Alberta's record budget deficit and Paul Hinman's victory in the Calgary-Glenmore by-election. It's hard to disagree that there is disgruntlement with Stelmach's leadership inside the PC caucus, it is difficult to understand why the more right-wing conservatives would leave the governing caucus to occupy the opposition benches.

This said, any PC MLA crossing the floor to the Wildrose Alliance could change the political landscape in the Alberta Legislature, especially if they are a cabinet minister. If only a hand full of PC MLAs joined a Danielle Smith-led Wildrose Alliance, they could easily replace the two-MLA NDP caucus as the third party. With only 9 MLAs, the Liberal Official Opposition could become the third-place party if the rumoured 10 PC MLAs joined what would become an 11 MLA official opposition.

*Anyone can read Alberta Scan and many other publications for free at the Legislative Assembly Library.

recap: citytv town hall on alberta politics.

I was pleased to join a panel of distinguished Edmontonians, including Avenue Magazine Editor Colin McGarrigle and University of Alberta Dean of Business Mike Percy, and elected officials this morning for a CityTV live-broadcast town hall meeting at Enterprise Square. The town hall was hosted by Ryan Jespersen and Bridget Ryan reported live from a classroom at Paul Kane High School in St. Albert.

Representing the Progressive Conservative Association, Aboriginal Relations Minister Gene Zwozdesky was a friendly ambassador. As the long-time MLA for Edmonton-Mill Creek (he sat as a Liberal from 1993 to 1998 and as a PC from 1998 to the present), these kind of town halls are old hat for the political veteran. Zwozdesky presented a largely scripted pro-government message in his response to questions from Jespersen and the Paul Kane students. His interactions with the other MLAs on the panel were similar.

Edmonton-Strathcona NDP MLA Rachel Notley is always well-spoken and at every opportunity she took control of the discussion with ease, including taking jabs at Zwozdesky over a recently leaked report from Alberta Health Services that the NDP claim include plans to close over 9,000 long-term care beds.

After the forum, I had a really good discussion with Notley about the challenges in reinvigorating politics and civic engagement in Alberta. While she thought I may have been a little hard with my criticisms of politicians, we both agreed that what exists now in terms of political infrastructure isn't resulting with a politically engaging population. From the perspective of an opposition MLA, I can understand how it quickly becomes a chicken and egg scenario. In our parliamentary democracy, can an already existing political movement invigorate citizens to engage in politics, or will citizens need to already be engaged before a political movement can begin to succeed? I believe that it comes down to values and the mechanisms that citizens feel they can join to express them.

Since becoming leader of the Alberta Liberals and the Official Opposition last December, I have noticed a marked improvement in David Swann's public speaking skills. One of the things I like about Swann is his sincerity, and while in a public speaking engagement one year ago it could have been mistaken as awkwardness, it's now starting shine through. As the MLA for Calgary-Mountain View, Swann is much lesser known in Edmonton than previous Liberal leaders (four of the six Liberal leaders over the past 25 years have been from the Edmonton area), so this forum provided a good opportunity for him to speak to Edmontonians.

Fresh from what he described as a "jet ride" victory in the Calgary-Glenmore by-election, Wildrose Alliance MLA-elect Paul Hinman relied heavily on memorized talking points, but was the second most articulate speaker after Notley. On-air, Hinman presented a reasonable message of conservatism that likely would not have scared away many voters, and he addressed the issue of the politics of scaremongering while on-air.

My more interesting reflections on Hinman are generated from our discussion afterward, when he spoke in the tone of a much harder version of anti-government conservatism. I believe that government can play a positive role in society, but it was clear that Hinman didn't as we conversed about the roles of individuals, community, and government in irradiating poverty and homelessness (it eventually culminated with Hinman very calmly accusing me of being a socialist).

During the sixth segment of the town hall, I made a point that had been similarly expressed after a recent Globe & Mail column blamed young people for the inspiration deficit in Canadian politics. I believe that it is naive of us to simply expect that young people will automatically buy-in to a political system that is dominated by a previous generation who held different priorities and values. There are young people who are passionate about any kind of issue you could imagine, but that doesn't mean that they will see value in participating in the currently existing political structure. Young people care about their future and they have valid opinions - and you can watch that passion in the final segment when Paul Kane students questioned the MLAs about Bill 44.

Overall, the town hall was a positive experience. I really believe that there is a lack of solid political discussion happening in Alberta and I hope that CityTV and other television stations host more live-discussions and debates in the future.

(Thanks to Kevin Kuchinski for the photos)

Video Segments:
Part 1: Introducing the BT Townhall
Part 2: Out Political History
Part 3: On Health Care
Part 4: The Real Questions
Part 5: The Wake-up Call
Part 6: Apathy & the Next Generation
Part 7: Bill 44 & Closing Remarks

talking politics on citytv.

On Thursday morning from 8:30am to 10:00am, I will be taking part in a political discussion hosted and televised on CityTV Edmonton. Students from St. Albert's Paul Kane High School will be spending their morning in the audience at the Enterprise Square Atrium discussion. This event is open to the public!

Panelists: University of Alberta Dean and former MLA Mike Percy, Ken Chapman, Dave Cournoyer, Colin McGarrigle (Editor, Avenue Edmonton)

Political Representatives: Minister Gene Zwozdesky, Official Opposition leader David Swann, NDP MLA Rachel Notley, and Calgary-Glenmore MLA-elect Paul Hinman.

Discussion topics:
- Have these decades long dynasties served the people of Alberta well?
- What's left of the left? Is Alberta so far to the right there's little chance for the left?
- Forget the left, is Calgary Glenmore a serious sign that the right is splitting? Or is it simply an isolated protest vote?
- Forget politics all together. Let's review the abysmal voter turn-out!
- How do we foster sense of community, duty and political interest in our youth?

calgary-glenmore by-election results.

Paul Hinman, WAP: 4,052 (37%)
Avalon Roberts, Lib: 3,776 (34%)
Diane Colley-Urquhart, PC: 2,863 (26%)
Eric Carpendale, NDP: 148 (1%)
Len Skowronski, SC: 118 (1%)
Tony Gronchowski, Ind: 71 (1%)

There will undoubtedly be no shortage of analysis and punditry about the impact of these results during the political season this fall, so here are some thoughts to help start it off:

- Calgary-Glenmore represents only the fourth time since 1979 where a provincial by-election has resulted in a switch of party representation. This is the second since Ed Stelmach became Premier in 2006.

- Paul Hinman is returning to the Alberta Legislature. Hinman is the outgoing Wildrose Alliance leader and served as the MLA for Cardston-Taber-Warner from 2004 to 2008. A 37% victory is far from a landslide, but it appears that Hinman's SEND ED A MESSAGE campaign resonated with a plurality of voters in Glenmore. It will be interesting to see if this by-election win increases public interest in that party's leadership race scheduled for October 17.

- The Alberta Liberals were hoping to build on their Calgary gains from the 2008 election, but candidate Avalon Roberts' strong second-place finish showed that the Liberals have been unable to grow their share of the vote from 2008. This is not great news for an Official Opposition party that has constantly struggled to define itself.

- How could Diane Colley-Urquhart not win? Some pundits may point out that the last time a PC candidate placed so poorly in a Calgary by-election was Calgary-Buffalo in 1992. While I'm not disputing that Rod Love's third place finish in the 1992 contest was embarrassing, the Calgary-Glenmore scenario is quite different. Unlike Calgary-Buffalo in 1992, which had been represented by popular Liberal MLA Sheldon Chumir, Calgary-Glenmore has been a PC stronghold since 1971. Also, unlike Love, Diane Colley-Urquhart was not a parachute candidate. Colley-Urquhart is a nine-year Alderman, a former President of the Glenmore PC Association, and the campaign manager for former MLA Ron Stevens. Colley-Urquhart knew Glenmore and the PCs still managed to lose over 3,500 votes in this election.

- When did it become an appropriate use of public resources for the Premier to issue a media release from the Government of Alberta thanking a candidate for running for his party? Rather than congratulating Hinman on his election, Premier Stelmach issued a Government of Alberta media release thanking Colley-Urquhart for her "strong and honourable campaign." There was no mention of the MLA-elect for Calgary-Glenmore in the media release.

- With an upcoming leadership review, expect Premier Stelmach to initiate some classic overcompensation. Since the end of the spring legislative session, there have been endless rumours about a fall cabinet shuffle and who it could include. Rumour has it that new Calgary faces in the cabinet that could include Dave Rodney and Len Webber.

- The Alberta NDP and Social Credit candidates battled throughout the evening for the fifth place finish, with Socred leader Len Skowronski finally besting NDP flag-bearer Eric Carpendale late in the evening.

Related:
Alex Abboud: Calgary Goes Wild(rose)
Ken Chapman: By-Election Results Show Premier Stelmach has some serious soul searching to do!
Chris Labossiere: Between a WRAP and a Hard Place
Trish Audette: Break out the welcome mat...
Calgary Grit: A Wild(rose) ride in Calgary Glenmore
Graham Thomson: Stelmach's nightmare now a reality

a message to calgary-glenmore voters.

Dear Calgary-Glenmore voters,

From 9:00 AM to 8:00 PM today, you have the opportunity to vote in the by-election that will choose your next MLA.

In the last general election only 41% of you voted.

You've probably heard a lot about how tens of thousands of Canadians have died to protect your democracy and your right to vote. I would reiterate this point, but because it didn't faze 59% of you during the last election, it probably won't faze you now.

So, to get to the point, please don't embarrass Alberta with a low voter turnout today. You don't have good excuse, so get out and vote.

Sincerely,

Dave

Candidate Information
Eric Carpendale
Diane Colley-Urquhart
Antoni Grochowski
Paul Hinman
Avalon Roberts
Len Skowronski

the reports of its death are greatly exaggerated.

As the national media and blogosphere let out a collective gasp at the prospect of a political party wanting to form a majority government, Graham Thomson points out that the much less attention grabbing world of Alberta politics is far from dead.

Next week marks the beginning of the first round of public hearings for the Electoral Boundaries Commission and the by-election in Calgary-Glenmore. This weekend also marks the Alberta NDPs 43rd annual convention, and while it's no surprise that the left faces some serious challenges in Alberta, so apparently does the right.

At their first leadership forum in Grande Prairie, the Wildrose Alliance is reported to have only attracted 30 people. While Grande Prairie has hardly been a hotbed of Wildrose Alliance support (that party only contested one of that city's ridings, Grande Prairie-Smoky, where the candidate placed third with 13% support), it raises questions if that party's leadership race is attracting more media attention than it is attracting new members.

Their leadership convention isn't until October 17, but much of that party's short-term prospects will be determined by how well outgoing leader Paul Hinman places in Monday's by-election. Even if voters in Calgary-Glenmore choose not to elect Hinman, but he is able to significantly increase his party's vote it could be seen a moral victory. Between the 2004 and 2008 elections, the Alliance increased its vote by 4% to 1,025 votes, which add up to a significant amount of votes in a by-election that may see a lower than normal voter turnout.

As Hinman's campaign pushes into the final days of the by-election, I'm sure that Liberal candidate Avalon Roberts will be hoping that the Wildrose Alliance cutting into the right-wing supporters of PC candidate Diane Colley-Urquhart will lead to a repeat of Craig Cheffins' 2007 Calgary-Elbow victory. Not a far fetched scenario.

I will be at tonight's Wildrose Alliance leadership forum and this weekend's NDP convention in Edmonton, and will be reporting back on this blog and on twitter with all the latest news.

social media guide to the calgary-glenmore by-election.

As was announced earlier this week, and covered by bloggers elsewhere, a by-election has been called for September 14, 2009 to fill the vacant Calgary-Glenmore seat Alberta's Legislative Assembly. The vacancy was created when Deputy Premier Ron Stevens resigned and accepted a Judicial appointment last May. In preparation for the impending by-election, candidates have been hitting the pavement in the months since Stevens' resignation, but how have they been doing on the social media front?

At this point, it appears that the two candidates most active on the social media front are PC candidate Diane Colley-Urquhart and Liberal candidate Avalon Roberts. Both of these candidates are using websites, writing blogs, and are active on Twitter and Facebook. NDP candidate Eric Carpendale doesn't appear to have a website, but he has recently started a Twitter account and has a support group on Facebook. While Wildrose Alliance candidate Paul Hinman's current web presence appears to be limited to his website, it is chalk full of the message "Send Ed a Message" (even in the url).

At midpoint in the by-election, I will take a look at how each the candidates have been using social media to engage voters and catch the attention of both the old and new media.

Eric Carpendale (NDP)
Facebook / Twitter

Diane Colley-Urquhart (PC)
Website / Blog / Facebook / Twitter

Paul Hinman (WRA)
Website

Avalon Roberts (LIB)
Website/Blog / Facebook / Flickr / Twitter / YouTube

Len Skowronski (SC)
Bio on official Social Credit website

If I have missed anything, please feel free to email me or write a comment below. Thanks!

Related Post:
Alberta Politics Online

calgary-glenmore candidate update.

Avalon Roberts was chosen as the Liberal candidate at a nomination meeting in Calgary-Glenmore this week. Over 150 Liberals are reported to have shown up to participate in the meeting, where Roberts faced off against Corey Hogan. (Matthew Naylor live-blogged the evening)

Paul Hinman has been officially nominated as the Wild Rose Alliance candidate.

A by-election to replace former MLA Ron Stevens is expected to take place in Fall 2009.

june nomination blitz.

- June 16 is the date of the Conservative nomination in Edmonton-Strathcona. Linda Blade, Ryan Hastman, and Cathay Wagantall have spent the last month duking it out for the opportunity to run against NDP MP Linda Duncan.

- June 22 is the date of the Alberta Liberal nomination in Calgary-Glenmore that will see Corey Hogan and Avalon Roberts face off for the right to carry their party's banner into the upcoming by-election to replace former PC MLA Ron Stevens.

- June 23 is the date of the Wild Rose Alliance nomination meeting in Calgary-Glenmore. It looks as if outgoing leader and former Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Paul Hinman may be the only candidate to seek the nod.

- Danielle Smith: Wild Rose Renaissance? One blogger is boldly predicting that she is "the greatest threat to the Tory dynasty in Alberta since Laurence Decore."

- Former Ontario NDP MPP, nearly interested Liberal, and now Calgary Mayoral candidate George Dadamo will soon be accepting applications for new campaign staff.

- The Alberta NDP hosted a revitalization conference in Edmonton last weekend. I am told that BC MP Nathan Cullen knocked the socks off the over 100 attendees with a rousing speech. Union orgainzer Eric Carpendale has been appointed as the NDP candidate for the upcoming Calgary-Glenmore by-election.

week in review: wildrose to northumberland clog dancing.

- Guards at Government House barred Official Opposition leader David Swann, NDP Leader Brian Mason, and Lethbridge-East MLA Bridget Pastoor from attending an announcement by Health Minister Ron Liepert this week. The Edmonton Journal's Trish Audette reports that Premier Ed Stelmach will be having a chat with Cabinet Ministers next week about that incident.

- David Climenhaga is speculating that Canadian Federation of Independent Business Director Danielle Smith could be the next leader of the Wildrose Alliance. Current leader and former MLA Paul Hinman has announced his intentions to leave the position in June.

- Aaron Braaten has written an insightful post on the recent AIMCo. investment in Precision Drilling.

- MLA Bridget Pastoor waded into the Edmonton City Centre Airport debate this week. While most of the debate to this point has depended on anecdotal evidence supporting the closing or continued operation of the airport, the City of Edmonton is expected to release a comprehensive report in June.

- Northumberland fact of the week: traditions include clog dancing.

all eyes on the opposition.

- On April 25, the Alberta Liberal Party will be holding its first Annual General Meeting since David Swann became leader in December 2008. After recently announcing the laying off of their two remaining party staff members, I've been informed that the Liberals financial situation stabilized in the short-term when a number of donors opened their pockets when the news became public.

With current President Grant Dunlop stepping down, I've heard that two three candidates, Calgary Liberal Tony Sansotta, former Edmonton-McClung MLA Mo Elsalhy, and current Party Secretary Carrol Jaques [see: an email from Jaques to supporters] are intending to stand for the position. I've also heard that some members of the party executive are pushing time at the AGM to hold a discussion on changing the Liberal Party name.

- Alberta NDP leader Brian Mason was joined by Vancouver-East MP Libby Davies at that party's revitalization conference this weekend in Grande Prairie. While the Grande Prairie Herald-Tribune reported only a dozen attendees, I was told by a conference attendee that there were nearly 30 attendees later in the afternoon (which still leaves the NDP with a lot of work to do).

The NDP haven't elected an MLA in the region for 25 years. Former NDP leader Grant Notley represented Spirit River-Fairview from 1971 to 1984, and Jim Gurnett was elected in a by-election following Notley's death in 1984 (Gurnett was later defeated by PC Glen Clegg in 1986). In 2008, NDP candidates Adele Boucher Rymhs and Nathan Macklin increased their party's support in Peace River and Dunvegan-Central Peace.

- Paul Hinman has announced that he will be stepping down as leader of the Wildrose Alliance. Hinman defeated PC MLA Broyce Jacobs to become the Alberta Alliance MLA for Cardston-Taber-Warner in 2004. Hinman was elected party leader in 2005 when Randy Thorsteinson stepped down. With the merger of the Alliance and Wildrose Party in 2008, he became leader of the Wildrose Alliance. Hinman was defeated in 2008 by Jacobs. According to Party President Jeff Callaway, members are also eyeing a name change.

- Meanwhile, the Alberta Greens may face de-registration by Elections Alberta for financial reasons...

photo post: alberta budget 2009.

Finance Minister Iris Evans.

Official Opposition Liberal leader David Swann.

Edmonton-Strathcona NDP MLA Rachel Notley.

Wildrose Alliance leader Paul Hinman.

Lindsey Telfer from the Sierra Club and Mike Hudema from Greenpeace.

Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel.

Culture Minister Lindsay Blackett.

My favorite: Sustainable Resource Development Minister Ted Morton and daveberta.ca fan Neil Waugh.

(Photos also posted on Flickr)

alberta election 2008: the leaders' debate.

Tonight is the only Leaders' Debate of the 2008 Alberta Provincial Election. The debate will be televised on CBC, CTV, and Global from 6:30-8pm. Here's my rundown of what to watch for from the party leaders:

Ed Stelmach, Progressive Conservatives: It is no secret that Ed Stelmach is not a strong public speaker. Many political watchers have been predicting that his debate performance will mirror the first week of the Tory campaign, I am going to disagree. Though I don't think Stelmach is a decent debater by any stretch of the imagination, I do think that because the expectations are so low for him that an even moderately okay performance by Stelmach will be seen as a win for him (regardless of how painful the experience is for both Stelmach and viewers).

This will be the only debate that Stelmach will participate in during this election. According to his campaign manager, George Sebest, “the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta, Premier Stelmach, will debate only other party leaders in provincial forums,” meaning that Stelmach will be a no-show at the all-candidate forums in his constituency of Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville.

Kevin Taft, Alberta Liberals: In the 2004 televised debate, Kevin Taft performed well against Ralph Klein and Brian Mason, but Ed Stelmach introduces is an untested dynamic in a televised debate. This debate is Kevin Taft's chance to shine and convince Albertans that he is indeed a Premier-in-waiting. If he can do this without falling into the trap of sounding too stiff and academic and he is able to connect with viewers in a confident Premier-like fashion, he just might be able to convince Albertans that, after 37-years of Tory rule, it's time.

Paul Hinman, Wildrose Alliance: After being excluded from the Leaders' Debate under his previous leader in in the 2004, Paul Hinman has won points by just being included in the debates. If Hinman is able to get a word in edge wise and communicate a competent message, this will be a personal win for him.

Brian Mason, New Democrats: Mason issued a challenge to the other party leaders to stick to the issues during the debate. I agree this is a great idea, but I'll be looking to see if Mason actually sticks to his challenge. Expect Mason to go after Kevin Taft as much or even more than he takes aim at Ed Stelmach. If his party is going to gain seats in this election it will be at the expense of the Taft Liberals in Edmonton, not of the Stelmach Tories.

George Read, Alberta Greens: Unfortunately, George Read was not invited to participate in the debates (I would have supported Read's inclusion in the debates). Instead, Read will be contributing to the debates through a YouTube video cast following the election. Make sure to check it out.

I will be live blogging the debates here on daveberta.ca and blogging my reaction on CBC YouCast (you can also watch the debate on the internet thanks to CBC).

wrap enters stage right.

The Wild Rose Alliance Party (WRAP) was formed this weekend with Paul Hinman as their leader. With only 3 or 4 weeks to organize and nominate candidates, I think it's a little too tell what sort of an effect the merger (or reuniting) of the Alberta Alliance and Wild Rose Party will have in the next election. I'll try to post something more in depth on this in the near future.

Calgary-Egmont Take Two: Paul Jackson-endorsed Jonathan Denis defeated Vicki Engel and Don Middleton in the Progressive Conservative nomination. In December 2007, Denis was defeated by Craig Chandler for the Calgary-Egmont Tory nomination before Chandler was booted from the PC nomination by Ed Stelmach and the PC executive for his extreme views. Denis will face off against former Calgary Catholic School District Chair and Alberta Liberal candidate Cathie Williams, and now-Independent candidate Craig Chandler.

uniting the right in alberta?

I've always had a bit of a fascination with the non-Progressive Conservative political right in Alberta and the future merger of the Wild Rose Party and the Alberta Alliance into the superparty Wild Rose Alliance is no exception.

I think it will be quite interesting to see the impact that a merger between these two parties will have in the next election. One of the quirks of Alberta politics seems to be the far-right's inability to keep organized between elections only to coalesce in time for the election period.

In the 2004 election, the Alberta Alliance, led by Randy Thorsteinson, ran a full slate of 83 candidates. Though the majority of Alberta Alliance candidates didn't come even close to victory, a few finished with strong second- or third- place finishes. Only Cardston-Taber-Warner candidate Paul Hinman (and now leader) was elected while Thorsteinson was unable to topple Tory MLA Luke Ouellette in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. With former Tory Broyce Jacobs once again challenging Hinman in Cardston-Taber-Warner, the Alliance leader Paul Hinman's chances of re-election are questionable.

Of course, a couple of questions still remain about the Alliance-Wild Rose Unite the Right initiative such as... will they have time to register with Elections Alberta as a formal party or will they run under an unofficial slate? Will they really have time to organize candidates and campaigns before the next election? Will they hold a leadership race or will Alliance Leader Paul Hinman take the reins as has been suggested? What role will Craig Chandler and his merry band of supporters play in this new party/alliance?

Here's a look back at some of the past-ventures of the non-PC far-right in Alberta electoral politics...

2004
Alberta Alliance (83 candidates) - 77,466 votes (8.7%)
Social Credit (42 candidates) - 10,998 votes (1.23%)

2001
Alberta First Party (16 candidates) - 8,851 votes (.87%)
Social Credit (12 candidates) - 5,361 votes (.53%)

1997
Social Credit (70 candidates) - 64,667 votes (6.84%)

1993
Confederation of Regions Party of Alberta (12 candidates) - 3,556 votes (.36%)
Social Credit (39 candidates) - 23,885 votes (2.41%)

1989
Social Credit (6 candidates) - 3,939 votes (.47%)

1986
Confederation of Regions Party of Alberta (6 candidates) - 2,866 votes (.40%)
Heritage Party of Alberta (6 candidates) - 601 votes (.08%)
Representative Party of Alberta (46 candidates) - 36,656 votes (5.14%)
Western Canada Concept Party of Alberta (20 candidates) - 4,615 votes (.65%)

1982
Alberta Reform Movement (14 candidates) - 6,258 votes (.66%)
Social Credit (23 candidates) - 7,843 votes (.83%)
Western Canada Concept Party of Alberta (78 candidates) - 111,131 votes (11.76%)

(Also, has anyone registered wildrosealliance.ca/.com/.org/.net, or do we need to go through this again...)